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The following article was published in our article directory on September 10, 2010.
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International Monetary System is the Global Imbalances Structure Source

Article Category: World Affairs

Author Name: Amanda xzh

The past 40 years people have seen and heard all dollar standard system, but that does not mean that the U.S. dollar standard system can not be a short-lived history of the error. Dollar standard system is a non-system system. The circulation of U.S. dollars is based on the needs of the United States. Internationally, there is no institution of enforcement mechanisms and rules to regulate the circulation of dollar relationship between the world needs.

Gold standard in practice, the world price of money by the impact of gold mining is not without volatility, but because there are practical restrictions on the number of gold, the band is not too much. With the economic relationship between monetary inflation and deflation through the cycle and have been regulated. Today, the dollar's circulation to the needs of the U.S. government is based. Hard to imagine a government with their own money to pay international debt situation, to control impulse spending is maintained.

In fact, the U.S. government's debt is mainly used in military and tax cuts purposes, not for people's consumption. Over-issued currency and commodity prices led to inflation and asset bubbles, but the real value of assets and commodity prices will eventually be forced to return to a reasonable price. Dollar price of oil today than in 70s last century, much higher, but in real terms, adjusted for inflation, the price level has not increased. The price level regression, distribution excessive use of money to lose, so there will be a deflation. Like Japan in the past 10 years shows. Therefore, the dollar standard system, the monetary circulation of the world economy needs the relationship between inflation and deflation in fact or through the cycle to adjust, but decided that reincarnation is no longer the gold production, but the blind market power. Therefore, the fluctuation of the magnitude and destructive power is much greater. If the international financial markets have "invisible hand" of existence, then, that this invisible hand is at least the risk was overwhelmed by the invisible hand in hand with the.

A recent article said the International Monetary Fund, in theory, even if different gold hook, through the operation of the capital, the dollar is also possible to maintain the international reserve currency status. In other words, the United States can serve as the world's largest hedge funds to maintain the dollar's international status. Before the financial crisis in the United States in fact is the development in this direction. This is a 2007 profit of U.S. financial sector accounted for more than 40% of corporate profits reasons. However, doing so at least two consequences.

First, in order to make up for insufficient domestic U.S. dollar, U.S. financial institutions through financial innovation, expansion of credit, increasing leverage and accelerate the speed of capital circulation, improve mobility (between 1990 and 2005, U.S. GDP growth of 80%, liquidity growth 300%). In this operating mode, no matter what kind of regulatory reform for a high degree of accumulation of risk would ultimately be released through the crisis.

Second, the foreign exchange reserve surplus countries will cycle back to the U.S. dollar, as the liquidity and safety. The operation of financial institutions in the United States dollar, the purpose is to seek high returns. In today's international financial markets, capital flows to a large extent not for investment or trade, but to transfer and risk diversification. The sub-prime product is a typical example. Therefore, foreign exchange surplus countries, the funding cycle out, the risk cycle back. Since the risk of such international regulatory arbitrage without monitoring. Disperse the risk because they can not manage, once it started, the economy will cause more damage.

Current international discussions on the RMB exchange rate where there are many specious. In the current international monetary system, the yuan does not have the rules for international financial institutions and the constitution recognized currency. 1985 Plaza Accord in Japan because a significant appreciation of the yen when the yen has been achieved in 1964 the current account convertibility in 1980, realized capital account, the yen appreciation of the currency at least honored to be internationally recognized and support. RMB is, in the absence of international circulation before the value of the yuan is only through each transaction to reflect the transaction value, in addition to inter-bank foreign exchange market and the central bank established with other central banks, the bilateral relationship, there is no international institutions, systems and rules to support the RMB currency. In this case, the economics can not be adjusted on the exchange rate and role function copy to U.S., because not part of the same category.

RMB internationalization will be far greater than the resistance of the yen and the euro. While the world than the United States, no country was completely give up control on capital flows, real realized capital convertibility, but the yuan is the first Western modern international currency outside the system, therefore, only in most countries, certainly China's political stability, property rights protection, financial institutions, capital markets and economic development prospects, pattern recognition outside of Europe and the United States should have other types of political and economic model under the premise of coexistence can be achieved RMB internationalization. In addition to the size of the hard power of economic but also political and diplomatic operations need to "soft power."

In the absence of international before the pricing of a basket of currencies the yuan help with stability of the currency. Any currency has two prices: the external and internal prices. External price is the ratio of currency with other currencies, the central bank under its own internal price is set interest rates and inflation expectations. Use the comprehensive index of all major currencies to help coordinate the RMB interest rate and with other countries the relationship between monetary policy. RMB exchange rate with the dollar, regardless of its form or the impact, far beyond the scope of Sino-US trade. If you only consider the current account surplus and deficit, then not only misunderstood the source of the problem, and might bring unintended consequences.

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