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The following article was published in our article directory on September 29, 2010.
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The Global Economy Has Not Fully Out Of Large Cycle Bottom

Article Category: Advice

Author Name: xia zihui

Digestion and climate change from the inventory, capital expenditures, property adjustment and demand gap of four ways, like the current round of global economic adjustment will continue for two to three years. Although worldwide there will be "second policy stimulus" to hedge "the secondary risk of recession", but really out of the crisis could be a lengthy process. In the major economies have yet to find a new source of economic growth, we have to do to accept a longer period of wandering mentally prepared for the economic low.

How do the current economic down again, requires us to examine the perspective of the economic cycle.

Financial crisis has over the past two years, although since the third quarter last year, led by emerging markets, the world has entered a recovery track, but the economy remains difficult. Fully demonstrates that the current economic recovery has stagnated, the international financial crisis far from over. Severe financial crisis, all countries on an unprecedented scale introduction of relief measures, on the economic stimulus is short, these policies of exogenous factors and not converted into a continuous, self-endogenous growth momentum, the global real economy long recovery Road is still very tortuous and difficult.

The current global economy is in a "short, long, medium and" triple down the superposition of the economic cycle. Decrease in the effects of policy stimulus, under the influence of inventory covering the end of the world within a short period of rapid economic recovery has been this year, peaked in the second quarter. From the big trends, the current world economy is in a downward phase of economic cycle, the global cycle, not out of the bottom of a large, still faces great pressure of cyclical adjustment.

In general, the economic cycle changes according to their length and the cycle can be divided into four categories: Kitchin cycle (3 years), Zhu Guerra cycle (10 years), Kuznets cycle (20 years), Kant Aliyev pull quarter cycle (50 years), corresponding to the "inventory cycle", "capital investment cycle," "real estate cycle" and "technology innovation cycle."

Inventory cycle, in essence, reflects the fluctuations in production demand adaptation, so strong short-term fluctuations in inventory investment and inventory investment and GDP between "cyclical" feature, so the inventory changes often serves as an important indicator of economic fluctuations . August of this year, the global growth rate of new orders fell to its lowest level since the year, with the slowdown in new orders and inventory rebuilding efforts in the decline, new orders - inventory ratio fell to 1.05, has been slightly lower than the beginning of this century's economic expansion among the three deceleration of industrial production (in early 2003, the end of 2005 and 2006) the level of the bottom. As the final demand, retail inventory digestion rate on supplier stock limited enterprises to make stock power is insufficient to pull the covering business inventories, which started since late last year showed the United States and Europe tend to fill inventory process is completed.

In the capital investment cycle, driven by the profit created by the expansion in investment in the economic cycle is called Zhu Graham cycle, which is a mean duration of 10 years in the economic cycle. The United States since the beginning of the fourth quarter of 2001, the latest round of cycle, the third quarter of 2010, less than 9 years, from the cycle at least finish Zhu Glasgow end of next year. Investment cycle, a significant comparison is investment in equipment, while the U.S. fixed-asset investment since the third quarter of 2009 since the four-quarter sequential growth, but the short term the lack of emerging technologies and industry changes to boost the return on capital into the new fixed assets of the investment cycle is still too early.

Developed countries alike, can not escape the shackles of the real estate cycle. Since the financial crisis, the United States as the representative of the real estate bubble burst has entered a typical under the Kuznets cycle adjustment. With the U.S. withdrawal of purchase tax rebate stimulus, the U.S. real estate market once again fall into the doldrums: the U.S. real estate sales accounted for more than 80% of home sales plunged 27.2% qoq, record the largest decline since 1968; earlier than the decline in new home sales ring 12.4%, down to the lowest since 1963. In addition, the "shadow inventory" (the so-called "shadow inventory" are those that are not yet available, but because homeowners can not afford the mortgage and into the seizure state, and sooner or later be pushed to the housing market), and rising housing only redemption rate will make the down real estate prices face great pressure. According to OECD's monitoring of U.S. real estate cycle, the U.S. real estate cycle is about 18.3 years. From 1995 to 2006, real estate bottom of the real estate bubble burst, the U.S. real estate cycle after 12 years, if the average cycle length calculation, the real estate recession in the United States at least until 2012 or even longer. Than 6 trillion U.S. residential value has shrunk, although the Europe did not suffer such a heavy real estate losses, but the demand is still extremely weak, the euro zone in July construction output is still 3.1% of the chain there decline in the library with the real estate industry Zi Nieci the bottom of the cycle stage.

In addition, the financial crisis is likely to total potential output of the global economy and the potential long-term negative impact on the composition of demand. On the one hand, looking from the output gap, according to estimates, if measured from the level of potential GDP, the recession before the global potential economic growth of 3%, down 2.1% in early 2009, recently restored to 2.6% of new level lower than the pre-crisis level of around 0.5 percentage points, the U.S. and Europe at the manufacturing industry capacity utilization has gone up despite the early-crisis, but still below the long-term average. The output gap measure, the total global output gap shrinkage is also very obvious. International Monetary Fund, expected next year, the global output gap will remain at 3.0% to 3.5%.

On the other hand, the demand gap, the United States for many years led to massive over-consumption of household debt, extreme volatility in the financial system in Europe, Japan is also facing structural deflationary pressures. United States and Japan fell into a phase three economic size of about 1 trillion less than the total demand of around the state. Although domestic demand is becoming a global economic recovery needs momentum, but in any case not enough to offset the increase in Chinese consumption of U.S. consumption decline. Chinese household consumption accounted for only 35% of GDP. Total U.S. personal spending about 10 trillion U.S. dollars, total personal consumption in China is almost 1.6 trillion U.S. dollars in 6 to 7 times. In contrast, Japan and Germany there is a certain leeway to increase domestic consumption, but so far, the two countries to recover from the recession, the power does not come from the expansion of domestic demand, but the same as before the crisis, relying on export-driven growth . Therefore, there is considerable in terms of global demand gap.

Digestion and the economy from changes in the inventory, capital expenditures, property adjustment and demand gap of four ways, the global economy is difficult to reproduce the rapid growth in the short term pattern. In view of the current round of economic adjustment may continue for two to three years. Although worldwide there will be "second policy stimulus" to hedge "the secondary risk of recession", but really out of the crisis could be a lengthy process. In the major economies have yet to find a new source of economic growth, we have to do to accept a longer period of wandering mentally prepared for the economic low.

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