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The following article was published in our article directory on October 13, 2010.
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EU into the Most Difficult Period Since World War II

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Immediately after the rescue plan, the implementation of the European Central Bank said it would "interfere" in order to ensure the market's "depth and liquidity." May 10, the European Central Bank began to purchase bonds. However, the ECB said that this intervention is sterilized intervention type, that does not increase the total currency amount of the financial system.

The ECB also restart the unlimited three-month fixed-rate loan, which is against the credit market crisis, European Central Bank an important tool. Germany, France and Italy's central bank said the 10-day purchase of government bonds has started, but did not provide specific situation. The ECB and the Fed has restored the dollar - euro exchange mechanism. May 9, President Obama to German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy expressed the need to take decisive action to restore investor confidence. This shows that the U.S. is very worried about Europe's crisis will affect U.S. economic recovery.

However, the European Union and early May the International Monetary Fund rescue package by the huge funding gap can only make short-term debt, and can not fundamentally solve the solvency problem of the debt of Greece.

According to IMF analysis, asked Greece to take the financial rescue plan "austerity measures" to slash government spending by wage-based (government employee's wages will be reduced 14%), will result in a serious economic recession in at least the next two years (-4% above), bringing the total public debt (including current and past) the ratio of GDP to 115% from 2009, deteriorated to 130% in 2011. Substantial pay cut and severe economic recession, will significantly push up the unemployment rate (from 9% in 2009 to 15% in 2012), causing deflation, as the existing debt so that real interest rates increase, and worse. German Chancellor Angela Merkel also recognized rescue program can only immediate needs solutions.

In the end there is no way to solve the Greek debt solvency problem? There are three possible ways:

First, the debt restructuring: the debt has arisen in the case of financial difficulties, creditors and debtors in accordance with its agreement to make concessions;

Second, currency depreciation: to Greece from the EU single currency to local currency depreciated by diluted debt, and improve product competitiveness, to increase exports and economic growth;

Third, the arrears of debt or deadbeat: a "do nothing" approach after;

Possible way the EU is a clear understanding of the chest, the reason for avoiding it because there is a way to use any, are the Greek sovereign debt crisis would quickly spread to other "Pigs Five" (PIIGS, from Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain, the five EU countries, highly indebted first letter, they were liabilities of 3.5 trillion, of which nearly 3 trillion U.S. dollars held by banks by the European Union), which led to the disintegration of the European Union. In this regard, the European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet openly warned EU member states: "We're in World War II, or even a war has been the most difficult time."

Can be said that the Greek behind the debt crisis seem to have time to upgrade the shadow of rating agencies, then, so why they do anything they want?

As an important participant in the financial markets, credit rating agencies is the basic responsibility of the bond issuer's default risk making professional judgments, concluded that the ratings they provide an important basis for investors to judge the risk to a large extent determine the financial products pricing. Because of this, Greece has been degraded every time has led to their yields will rise, increasing financing costs, and ultimately to the point that can not afford, only to the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for help.

Debt crisis in Greece, the rating agencies concluded more about the European Central Bank and institutional investors. Acceptable collateral for ECB credit rating threshold is the "A-", the Greek credit rating was lowered to "BBB +" This will mean that the European Central Bank response to the financial crisis by introducing the end of this year after the expiration of the special policy will be can not accept the Greek government bonds as collateral, thereby cutting off the Greek an important financing channels. Forced to aid Greece needed, the ECB had decided to make an exception of Greece, and those who will remain stable type of pension fund can not buy Greek bonds, which is facing financial difficulties of the Greek government is undoubtedly worse.

In the international financial crisis, the credit rating agencies to be too widely criticized. Credit rating agencies in the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis is alleged to show signs of slow when there is no time down the sub-prime products and remind investors of credit risk rating, resulting in further loss, adding to the turmoil in financial markets, and it eventually evolved into financial crisis.

Credit rating agencies are faithfully perform their duties, or in promoting the escalation of the crisis? Greek crisis once again raised the specter of doubt the credibility of rating agencies themselves.

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