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The following article was published in our article directory on October 18, 2010.
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Australian Deputy Prime Minister Promised not to Intervene in the Exchange Rate

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

An exchange rate of the smoke, there are still people in the "flourishes."

Australian Government unexpectedly announced yesterday afternoon, not just in the 15th of this month (last Friday) hit a 27-year high of Australian intervention.

According to Xinhua, the Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Treasurer Huaiensiwang the same day that the Australian government does not appreciate the Australian dollar continued to intervene, because this will Australian economy "catastrophic" consequences.

15th of this month, the Australian dollar foreign exchange market in London against the U.S. dollar was up to 1 to 1. This is the last 27 years, the Australian dollar for the first time such a situation.

In fact, the strong Australian dollar has long been a pattern. Since mid-June this year, the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar soared 23%, only in the past 10 days, to appreciate 4%.

For a time, the parties have speculated whether Australia would have to intervene in Australian dollars to ensure that the interests of exporters.

Australian Government: intervention will be counterproductive

Swan said in a statement the same day, to take artificial measures to suppress the Australian dollar would be counterproductive, "will only lead to further inflation and interest rates rise, the economy would have devastating consequences."

Swan recalled that the 70s of last century, the Australian government to take a fixed exchange rate mechanism, the result makes the inflation rate in two years rose from 5% to 17%.

Simply explained, if the central bank wants to drive down its exchange rate, often need to throw the currency to buy foreign currency and in order to hedge the foreign currency into the country, the central bank and need to put in their respective national currencies on the market, so that the money supply increase, fueled inflation .

Prior to the analysis of experts and scholars from the point of view, we should say, Australia or the commitment of non-intervention in the basic expectations of all parties.

Previously, many experts agree that Australia is rich in natural resources, a large number of coal, iron ore and natural gas exports, as long as the smooth operation of the Australian economy, the Australian dollar was flat against the U.S. dollar is not surprising. Only when the exchange rate rose to more than 1 to $ 1.12, the Australian dollar's value will be overestimated.

Westpac currency strategist Rainey pointed out that, given the Fed's loose monetary policy to be taken, we can expect the Australian dollar in the next period of time with the U.S. dollar will remain flat or even slightly higher than the U.S. dollar.

U.S. dollar Australian dollar boost

Looking at the views of market participants, the Australian Government has been decided not to intervene in the exchange rate, perhaps because of this 27-year record high Australian dollar is mainly dollar driven.

Obvious is that, recently, not only on the Australian dollar and the euro, Japanese yen and many other major currencies are weakening rapidly.

October 15, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech in Boston to promote the Australian dollar is a "tied" The dollar's latest push hands. Because the market be implied from his speech that the Fed or the recent acquisition of 500 billion U.S. dollars into debt, which means that the market will be flooded with dollars, which was heavy selling of dollars.

However, this view is clearly the market does not fully agree.

Some Australian analysts that the dollar has depreciated against the dollar must go quite to motivate, but the special circumstances of the global currency markets also contributed to the current Australian dollar is a major factor.

Australia's AMP Capital economist Shane Oliver, chief said: "The dollar's decline is the (Australian dollar) for a major factor ... ... but in addition to other economies, exchange rate policy impact on the Australian dollar."

Oliver's view is that the global currency markets is like a water bag, pressed down side, there will drum out. He said the depreciation of the dollar, the euro area, Japan, China and other economies, currency exchange rates on its own and was walking very cautious, making the Australian dollar as the release of pressure, "middle money" to appreciate.

As a result, some scholars yesterday that Australia's next move in the currency markets may also be a substantial appreciation of the Australian dollar will continue, and even affect the economy may be.

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