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The following article was published in our article directory on October 19, 2010.
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Citigroup Predicted that India's Economy Over China in 2014

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

China and India, the structural convergence of two major economic trend emerged lanes

Although in 2013 China will grow faster in India, but "India will overtake China in 2014 is expected to achieve growth rate of GDP 8.7%, 8.5% more than China."

Head of Research, Citigroup India and Managing Director Aditya Narain, Citi Greater China Investment Forum in 2010 to make the predictions. In response, Citigroup Investment Research and Analysis of China and managing director, head of high-Ming Shen said, adding that come to these conclusions are based, "the Chinese economy from external demand, while India's economy is driven by domestic demand. This to explain why the global financial crisis, India beat China. "

They believe that China and India, the structural convergence of two major economic trend emerged lanes, a trend that will narrow the gap between economic growth and thus provide the market with a new basis of valuation and investment opportunities.

Shen Ming Gao pointed out that the two economies show a larger difference between the heavy reliance on international demand for China, while India's growth depends on international capital. However, both are Qiduan structural adjustment, China's development is how to stimulate domestic consumption, while India mainly by the construction of infrastructure to attract capital in order to achieve production growth.

"Now it seems that China and India's economy has many differences. But in the long run, how to achieve sustainable economic growth and how to improve the system of government, two major emerging economies will become the common goal of long-term development," Shen Ming Gao pointed out.

"China's current economic growth depends on the global consumer demand, and the Indian economy to global capital is more sensitive. In China, strong management to ensure steady economic growth, but the market is more volatile; in India to market-oriented economy has created a relatively stable market environment, however, the instability of economic growth are increasing. Chinese companies rate of return is slightly lower than the Indian counterparts. "

Aditya Narain said that the economic recovery led by investment in India will have the potential to achieve more rapid development.

Shen Ming Gao said China will focus on boosting domestic demand, while India is committed to promoting domestic investment and exports. In this process of structural convergence, China and India, two major emerging economies "for the market to provide a new basis of valuation and investment opportunities."

According to Citigroup strategists predicted that the driving force of the Chinese market will come from the consumer and service industries such as consumer staples, insurance and electronics industries will outperform the market. India's investment themes will focus on investment and market interest rate sensitive sectors such as infrastructure, real estate and banking.

Earlier this month, Citigroup Investment Research and Analysis Division of the global emerging markets strategist Geoffrey Dennis will be raised in China and India were "overweight" and "neutral." In the emerging markets portfolio model, the Asian market has maintained its "overweight" rating.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts, as the two largest emerging market economies, 2008, the total GDP of China and India, emerging markets accounted for 30.2% of the total GDP, this ratio is expected to rise further in 2015 to 36.6%.

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