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The following article was published in our article directory on October 21, 2010.
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Currency War Five Hazards Hurt the Economy

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Global "currency war" has the potential to bring disastrous economic crisis in the world, mainly in the following five aspects: First, fueling global inflation risk. First, other countries will follow the United States, have adopted quantitative easing policy, the herding result is awash with liquidity and lead to global inflation risk; Secondly, from previous experience, as the world's major currency of the depreciation of the dollar will caused by raw materials, petroleum and agricultural products (000061) and other commodity price increases, giving rise to cost-push Inflation. Second half of 2010, the dollar has caused wheat, corn and cotton prices increased significantly, or is close to or more than 50%.

Second, the destruction of the stability of the international monetary system. The inevitable ups and downs of the dollar to the international monetary system and the tremendous impact of international financial markets. Currently, the U.S. share of global reserve currency accounted for more than 60% of the total settlement currency in international trade accounted for more than 50%. Once the devaluation of the dollar, the use of U.S. dollar denominated investment and economic entities would be forced to adjust the pressure and had to bear the additional adjustment costs.

Third, the U.S. will impose inflation tax in the form of free plunder his country's wealth. As the world's major international reserve currency and investment currency, the dollar depreciation will be outside the range in the world caused by the redistribution of wealth, enabling the United States occupy the purpose of his country's wealth. The dollar is essentially a debt obligation secured by the Federal Reserve, the dollar's decline means that the purchasing power of the United States to impose a tax on the inflation part of plundering the wealth of the creditors.

Fourth, the increase of the outbreak of "trade war" risks. With its strong U.S. economic influence and the U.S. dollar as the favorable position of the major international currencies, currency devaluation forced the implementation of policies, this approach is bound to harm the economic interests of other countries. If other countries in the "currency war" in a disadvantageous position, then these countries will be retaliatory trade measures to protect their own interests, the result is the "currency war" may become "a trade war."

Fifth, the increased risk in emerging market countries. Because higher income emerging market countries to developed countries, therefore, the United States will lead to a large number of quantitative easing hot money inflows to emerging market countries, if these countries tolerate substantial currency appreciation against the dollar, the situation will deteriorate in emerging market countries, foreign economic conditions. Conversely, if emerging market countries through the foreign exchange market intervention to prevent currency appreciation, then this approach will lead to inflation risk and the risk of asset bubbles. In the future, once the U.S. government to raise interest rates, large capital outflows in emerging market countries could trigger a financial crisis.

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