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The following article was published in our article directory on October 25, 2010.
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Capital Inflows Increase the Risk of Economic Stability in East Asia

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, all the middle-income countries are facing economic stability after the capital inflow risk.

Recently, the World Bank released in 2010, "semi-annual report", the report shows that the output of developing countries in East Asia has generally been restored to pre-crisis levels, while all countries face the risk of increased macroeconomic stability.

Risk of hot money inflow

According to "semi-annual report," large capital inflows in East Asia, coupled with rising inflationary pressures and rising asset prices, making the country the risk of increased macroeconomic stability. The instability of the important reasons - capital inflow of "hot money" of particular concern.

"Hot money" is a short-term property and when other opportunities arise in the overseas flow of cash tend to leave quickly. "Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is not 'hot money', while the investment portfolio, or whether the funds will be quickly left the bank remains to be seen."

Su Bowen, chief Asia economist at Nomura Securities believes that the specific amount of hot money is difficult to calculate. But the exchange rate can be adjusted according to the first amount of foreign exchange reserves, less the trade surplus and FDI inflows, and the rest is the hot money. China, for example, Su Bowen calculation, the third quarter, China's foreign exchange reserves rose by 194 billion U.S. dollars, exchange rate adjustment factors for the 119 billion U.S. dollars, while the third quarter was 66 billion U.S. dollars surplus, FDI of 230 billion U.S. dollars, ie three quarters of "hot money" is estimated at 300 billion U.S. dollars.

Reference to another measure of hot money - Asia's foreign exchange reserves also increased rapidly. According to Nomura Securities report, the third quarter of Asia's foreign exchange reserves increased by 355 billion U.S. dollars, amounting to 5.5 trillion.

Have exacerbated the capital return, and the securities portfolio and debt inflows in almost all countries constitute a shock. China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia, all the middle-income countries face the risk of capital inflows after, "in all countries in the Indonesia capital back is the most unstable."

The huge capital inflows and speed of policy makers in Asia has caused concern. 12, Thailand announced capital investment in domestic government bonds of foreign capital gains and interest income gained 15% withholding tax imposed to reduce the domestic debt attractive. South Korea, Indonesia and other countries have also implemented control measures, including regular check flow of foreign currency held by banks, etc., expected in India and the Philippines may also be limited in the near future to join the ranks. 12, the China Foreign Exchange Bureau is also clear that in the second half will continue to keep "hot money" flowing pressure against trend.

Inflation worrying

"Semi-annual report" also suggest that capital inflows surge, combined with abundant domestic liquidity and confidence rose, resulting in a number of national stock market and real estate prices skyrocketing, the overall inflation in East Asia. Reported in Indonesia and China, inflation has exceeded the upper limit of the central bank's inflation target, the Thai government is also warning recently have similar risks. In Indonesia, inflation accompanied by a rise in electricity prices under control, and Malaysia reduced the family's food and energy subsidies.

Most countries in East Asia, food prices have increased, especially in Indonesia, Vietnam, Laos and Mongolia. Factors, in addition to international wheat prices, trigger prices countries different factors. In Thailand, the drought in June of vegetable prices rose 38% a year earlier, while the Lao rice prices up 50% a year ago. In dollar-denominated, the price of industrial products in East Asia has reached its highest level since 2008.

Monetary authorities of East Asian countries continue to strengthen the monetary policy tightening to ease inflationary pressures. For example, in Vietnam, the central bank scrapped its financial crisis provides interest rate subsidies; Malaysia's policy rate particularly rapid growth, the cumulative 75 basis points, to reduce the amount of the financial crisis, 1 / 3; Thailand and Vietnam, some of the growth of smooth, but Compared to pre-crisis level of interest rates, there are space constraints.

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