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The following article was published in our article directory on October 29, 2010.
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China Allowed the Yuan Appreciation Introduced Concern

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

With the national politicians to take action to stop global "currency war" broke out, the most prominent problem than China will allow the yuan to appreciate against the dollar to what extent.

In mid-October, the U.S. Treasury to postpone the high expectations of the international exchange rate market, the release of the report, thus avoiding the question of whether to label China a currency "manipulator" of the thorny issues. Since then, the debate intensified.

Since then, the yuan has appreciated against the dollar stopped - but depreciated by 0.2%. Forex traders have reduced the market in the long-term rate of RMB appreciation bet the future.

Earlier, U.S. politicians continue to put pressure on China, accusing China of RMB depreciation by allowing support domestic industries. Under this pressure, the RMB a month-long emergence of significant appreciation.

June of this year, the Chinese government to lift the yuan peg to the dollar in fact. Since then, the RMB appreciation of 2.5%.

French Agricultural Credit Bank strategist Dariusz Kowalczyk said that although the long term, the yuan will continue to appreciate, but the next few weeks and months, the pace of appreciation to a large extent as the international political pressure and change.

He said: "Obviously, the end of September to early October the appreciation of the renminbi, is intended to include the U.S. Treasury does not regard China a currency manipulator to provide an excuse." Traders are closely watching the November series of important political will occur events, including the Group of 20 (G20) Heads of Government Meeting and the U.S. mid-term congressional elections.

U.S. Treasury is also expected to be delayed the final release of its trading partners on the report of the exchange rate operations, but the date has been set.

The Chinese government hopes will not be a currency "manipulator", because that might make the United States could eventually impose trade sanctions on China, and prompt other countries to follow suit. Last weekend, G20 finance ministers to control the large current account surpluses and deficits reached a policy framework, which said China's own economic goals.

China's foreign exchange system critics say China's foreign exchange reserves continue to accumulate, that is, evidence that the yuan is undervalued.

This month's data show that the third quarter, has been ranked first in the world, China's foreign exchange reserves increased to 2.65 trillion U.S. dollars, an increase to a record 194 billion U.S. dollars.

The Chinese government argued that from their own standpoint, the rapid appreciation of the renminbi, the Chinese export sector will bear, and may therefore affect the global economy. In addition, in recent years, China's trade surplus has been declining.

Credit Agricole forecast, 2011, China's trade surplus will narrow to 140 billion U.S. dollars, equivalent to only 2.6% of GDP, substantially higher than the 3.8% decline this year.

However, apart from other foreign pressure, China let the yuan appreciate one of the most convincing argument is that it will help fight domestic inflation.

The level of prices rise and concerns about asset bubbles, encourage China to raise interest rates last week for the first time in nearly three years.

After a strong rebound in economic growth taken this initiative, is a small step, aimed at phasing out of financial crisis to the economic stimulus injected into the mass.

Win Thin Brown Brothers Harriman, that if Bank of China (PBoC) recent monetary policy tightening by the study can serve as a guide, then China may use currency appreciation to curb inflation.

Bank of China in 2006 and 2007 to tighten monetary policy, the yuan has risen sharply.

Second quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter, rose against the dollar by 1.5%, 1.3% and 2.8% in the first quarter of 2008, an increase of 4.2% is the highest level.

In other words, the integrated use of the Chinese central bank to raise interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio and currency appreciation, and other means to help fight inflation pressure. This is what we will see the situation in 2011.

China rate hike, the market lower expectations for RMB appreciation, 12-month non-deliverable forward rate, the renminbi will appreciate 3.3% against the U.S. dollar, down nearly 4% early last week.

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