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The following article was published in our article directory on November 3, 2010.
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U.S. Stocks Hit Bubble Age

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

Market value of 1.95 trillion U.S. dollars, or more than 15%. As a leading indicator of the economy, in July the U.S. stock market since the wave of Dallas City, seems to tell people that the future of the U.S. economy will emerge from the haze gradually improved.

However, the use of a good rally but intriguing. Fed officials have expressed a lot of talk really to show their attitudes, but also release a lot of signals, leaking a lot of "quantitative easing" of information. All investors believe the Fed is likely to announce on Thursday the second round of the quantitative easing program save the economy.

However, people are confused is that the current status of the U.S. economy can not give that to bring the expectations expressed by the support the stock market. The latest third-quarter gross domestic product increased by only 2% year on year, the unemployment rate remained at 9.6% is still high, in addition, consumer confidence is weak interval, coupled with real estate prices have been declining, it is difficult for these economic data people with a recovery in the U.S. economy is connected.

Even in this situation, the investors still hesitate to put money into the stock market, and constantly push the share price amazing heights. I can not help but to issue such a doubt, this rally is relying on the "Fed policy will succeed in the" illusion?

Generally speaking, the purpose of quantitative easing is driving down long-term bond yields and mortgage rates down, so that people can use more low cost to borrow money in order to relax the credit environment and to promote market liquidity. As Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has been unwilling to accept low interest rates in the real estate bubble to inflate the role played by the process, so he shouted again and again, said: Further easing little risk.

However, as of now, Fed officials did not give a how to "quantify" the precise signal, "loose" word is heard. Bernanke even said in a speech last month, is difficult to "determine the appropriate number and rate of acquisition and to communicate with the public on this policy." This vague policy signals, inevitably raises the effect of generating quantitative easing doubt.

Under the September 21 meeting, the Fed meeting on interest rates on the last throw of the so-called strategy, you want to push up inflation expectations by holding down real interest rates. Because, even if the inflation rate rose only a little, but also make transfer of wealth to the whole economic system. Prices will allow companies to make more money, the family unit will also benefit because of rising wages.

However, this view is risky. Once the Fed guide to successfully price rose channels, the risk of runaway inflation will rise. In addition, it also about the Fed's credibility. By regulating the deposit reserve ratio of banks, the Fed has against the price of the "independence and operational capacity," but, since two years ago, the Fed lowered its benchmark interest rate near zero since the record low, policy makers are still not fully explained in its response economic recession and the theory of anti-deflation plan.

There is so defined in the Fed's policy analysts, this "is like filling a belly 'quantitative easing' Carnival of the patients to the wine, the other one said anything to no avail."

On the positive side, the American stock market continue to rise, will increase the net assets of U.S. households, provide additional momentum for economic growth. However, investors should not also below the historical average rate of return, increasingly strict regulations, declining consumption and weak economic growth expected to reposition it yourself?

Einstein had done the following definition of the word insanity: repeatedly doing the same thing, but expecting different results. The Fed is about to set off a frenzied debate on the interior is being talked about the streets of investors, but investors should be clearly thought that this "ugly duckling" real economic need for more effective policy solutions.

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