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The following article was published in our article directory on November 8, 2010.
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Policy Under Rotation Emerging Capital Markets Performance

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

As expected, the Fed scheduled the day before yesterday launched a new round of quantitative easing monetary policy. Although the 600 billion U.S. dollars of treasury bonds to buy scale do not exceed market expectations, but the international financial markets, or to respond positively, stocks rise again, and yesterday's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets also performed strongly. This background, the United States, Europe, China and India so that future policy towards a more worrying about capital markets. I think that predict future policy direction, needs to be global economic trends and changes in international policies placed in the same style down a framework for analysis.

Since the third quarter of this year, subject to the gradual disappearance of short-term positive factors, the growth of fiscal consolidation plans to gradually appear and the inhibitory effect of the combined effects of increased uncertainty in the global economy than-expected rebound in the first half failed to extend the trend, the recovery momentum weakened, the market expected to be reduced to varying degrees. According to IMF in early October "Global Economic Prospects" published in the latest data, the global economy is expected to achieve annual growth of 4.8%, given the global economic growth rate of the first half of 5.25% in the second half will be significantly down. Decline in the global economic recovery momentum, and the twists and turns of progressive recovery more apparent against the backdrop of differences in the global economic recovery and further expanded.

This expansion is reflected in two aspects: on the one hand, emerging markets recovery is stronger than the developed markets. According to the latest IMF estimates, emerging markets this year, estimates of economic growth was 7.1%, 2.7% higher than the developed markets. On the other hand, the stability of emerging markets is also strong recovery in the developed markets. From the quarterly and monthly economic indicators, in the second half recovery in some developed markets substantially weaker than the first half of the kinetic energy, and momentum of economic recovery in emerging markets does not appear significantly decreased. Since the second half of the market confidence in the economy of the United States and Europe declined, while the emerging markets is expected to significant fluctuations did not occur within 10 months of the latest report, IMF will be the growth rate of the U.S. economy next year, lower than expected in July 0.7 and 0.6 percentage points, but the Chinese and Indian economies and in July is expected to have remained consistent with expectations.

Sub-regional perspective, in the first three quarters of the actual value of the U.S. economic growth and the estimated values were 3.7%, 1.7% and 2.0%, from the inventory cycle engine of economic growth and policy-driven consumption and trade associations to drive the gradual conversion, kinetic energy recovery lead to sluggish labor market continues to decline. Eurozone economic growth over the same period the actual value and estimated values were 0.8%, 1.9% and 1.9%, the tone early recovery were confirmed, the EU has gradually stabilized and the debt crisis, a strong rebound in the German economy, so that the overall economic performance of small euro area exceeded market expectations, but the risk of debt crisis in Europe has not yet eliminated, fiscal consolidation plan implementation in some countries have greater social resistance, the unemployment rate to remain high. Japan's economic growth rate of real value and estimated values were 5%, 1.5% and 2.2%, industrial output growth dropped significantly from the previous month, exports are significantly involved in the yen strengthened, but the employment situation improved. The emerging markets continued strong recovery in the third quarter, slightly less intensity than in the first half, emerging market economies in Asia continue to lead, in addition to the steady recovery in India, the Singapore economy in manufacturing, driven by rapid growth in first three quarters of a substantial increase of 16.9%, 19.6 % and 10.3%. In addition, higher commodity prices and the rebound in industrial production in Brazil and Russia led the rapid economic recovery.

With the gradual global economic recovery, complications and differences emerge, and global policy control style from the "exit-based" to "tool rotation." Subject to the debt crisis in Europe, the rise in the need for fiscal consolidation, fiscal policy significantly reduced the operating room, from a fiscal policy stimulus rotation policy instruments of monetary policy and exchange rate policy to the U.S. and European developed economies to further enhance the tone of easy money, worldwide beginning to achieve a competitive exchange rate depreciation phenomenon.

In monetary policy, U.S. and European developed economies easing through the "expansion of extending the duration of the remaining quantitative easing" of the hybrid approach to further strengthen the global monetary policy game more complicated. Earlier, Brazilian Finance Minister Mantega said that "the world has been plunged into a currency war", and announced plans to buy excess dollars to prevent the Brazilian real continued to appreciate, despite the "Bill of exchange rate reform to promote fair trade" in the Senate and was U.S. President signed the possibility of low, but the controversy has led to more warming of Sino-US exchange rate, while Thailand, Korea, India, UK, Switzerland, Peru and Chile, and economies are sent out directly or indirectly interfere with the signal of the currency exchange rate.

Given the global economic recovery momentum will be further decline in the short term, the general direction of global policy will control and balance in considering the irritant, the overall style from the "main out" to "tool rotation" will continue to change, fiscal policy both fiscal consolidation and a moderate expansion of the tone, loose monetary policy to moderate the tone.

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