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The following article was published in our article directory on November 11, 2010.
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U.S. Dollar has Become Today's Global Economy Most Unstable Factors

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

The number of the second round of Fed easing moves, let the world know clearly the two problems: U.S. is the largest global instability, must be U.S. dollar-based constraints, and change the international monetary system.

In the United States announced a new round of easing the number of within a week after the euro appreciated more than 3%, close to 2% appreciation of sterling, the yen appreciated nearly 1%. Global stock price rose, the Dow Jones index rose more than 3%, Britain, Germany, France stock market rose more than 6%, 5% and 7%. The impact of oil prices to 90 dollars, gold broke $ 1,400. U.S. unscrupulous mass distribution, making the emerging market capital flows to accelerate and promote the rapid appreciation of the currency, an asset price bubble and inflation-risk areas. Into the third quarter of the Southeast Asian countries and South Korea stock market funds is 5 times the second quarter. World economic turmoil and crisis of reproduction risk.

In particular, the number of loose Fed policy is to be implemented through the purchase of government bonds. Purchase of government bonds in the secondary market trading the stock market is a capital injection for financial institutions, to improve the real economy has no direct effect. Because of high unemployment, sluggish real estate market, the new economic growth point is not clear, how will U.S. banks to provide credit to the real economy, the motivation behind it? The fact is that traditional bank business credit, consumer credit and real estate areas rolling credit basic but not restored.

The world are worried about, it goes on, whether there will be the third round, fourth round of the U.S. dollar and then flood the world? Coincidentally, around the world to intervene the exchange rate and implementation of capital controls to stabilize the currency to maintain its economic stability, to protect their own interests. This, in turn unmistakably shows, the Fed greatly shaken currency dollar junk-based international monetary system.

First, the basic national currencies, U.S. dollar "anchors." But the U.S. dollar led to global liquidity spread spam, to promote the inflow of funds into the currency appreciation around the world, sparking the formation of emerging market countries may worsen asset price bubbles and inflation concerns, which greatly disrupted the global exchange rate, trade and commodity markets normal order, created great instability in the global economy and trade, countries have to use various tools to intervene and even the imposition of capital controls exchange rate. This means that countries are no longer in U.S. dollars as the "anchor", but in their own exchange rate target as the "anchor" the.

Of course, the U.S. dollar as the "anchor" position just been a great challenge, and there is no fundamental shake its status, if the U.S. can not immediately homing to restore "anchor" of the function and role, that or the dollar-based international monetary system, the beginning of disintegration.

The short term, G20 summit should urge the U.S. to exercise the responsibility of the international reserve currency is necessary. In times of crisis, stabilize the economy must be stable trade and settle trade must be stable exchange rates, stable exchange rate stability of the dollar first, in line with the interests of the United States and various countries. Medium and long term, countries should seek a relatively stable currency as the currency of international trade clearing and settlement, or to form a monetary settlement of bilateral imports of currency options is a more equitable way.

Second, the United States has been using the liability method development. Particular crisis, the fiscal deficit increased sharply to historic highs. Such risks and liability growth model has been very prominent unsustainable U.S. debt growth mode change is urgent. But this change has a cost. A large part of U.S. government bonds held by foreign, and directly reduce the depreciation of the dollar debt to foreign holders bear the same great loss. U.S. trade deficit is excessive consumption of foreign civil liabilities in the form of one of the form, the trade deficit actually borrow money from foreign countries to promote consumption growth. Suppressed by depreciation of the dollar exports of other countries, forced the Americans to reduce overdraft, rather than a way to encourage savings and investment to achieve the transformation of consumption patterns of civil liability, such a result, it is a global emerging market countries in particular, inflation, asset price bubble, and even at the expense of the financial crisis. Sacrifice the interests of other countries to achieve their own purposes, it is very immoral. Therefore, the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade of Brazil officials said, the Fed will "allow them to become destitute neighbor, is a deprivation of neighboring countries, leading to retaliatory measures." Depreciation of the dollar would help reduce the trade deficit to increase exports

Given the number of liberal policies and a new round of dollar devaluation on the devastating impact of the huge national economies, Japan, Britain and Europe, announced the expansion of the central bank to buy assets, respectively, the scale of the number of loose change interest rates unchanged, which can be interpreted as following the Fed's loose monetary policy, also be regarded as a response to the yen, pound sterling and the euro against the U.S. dollar exchange rate interventions.

Emerging market central banks have intervened in currency markets are Brazil, Korea and Southeast Asian countries, officials threatened to take more measures to stop the avalanche of capital, Brazil, Thailand has launched a capital controls on foreign speculative capital taxation. South Korean Ministry of Finance said it would consider limiting the method of capital inflows. Bank of Thailand is working with other central banks in Asia "close consultations", for the introduction of measures "to prevent excessive speculation."

IMF exchange rate policy is the most authoritative world body, has always respected the strong floating exchange rate regime. Its chief economist Olivier Blanchard said recently that the Fed launched the second round of quantitative easing measures will reduce the risk of carry trades, making more money into emerging markets, "if excessive capital inflows, countries have reason to capital controls. "

Germany, France and emerging market governments have pledged to the G20 summit to challenge the United States. The World Bank has also recently proposed return to the "gold standard" vision. While this is not particularly practical and actionable recommendations, but showed the international community to reform the international monetary system, the strong demand.

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