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The following article was published in our article directory on November 11, 2010.
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Gold Prices Development Clear Lack of Produce Bubble

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Reached new highs, the market price of gold has brought untold difficulties and misunderstandings.

Gold does not "stand out"

And gold objects are compared, including S & P500 index, silver prices, international oil prices, U.S. housing market, the Nasdaq technology bubble and the Japanese stock market was so inflated. Only when the gold price and the ratio of asset prices continue to rise, only that of gold relative to their appreciation.

However, from the past 30 years, the rate of relations, the relative price of gold relative to assets, the trend is running almost perfectly the high and low points in history, gold investment products does not seem to be in the "Superman." If the price of gold and the S & P500 index ratio is currently about 1:1, which is the combination of 36 years to match the average price relations. The ratio of gold and oil since the end of this year, 7 15.5 times in the vicinity of the basic maintenance, and their 30-year average is 15 times. The same as the precious metals gold and silver is now at 65 times the rate of plus or minus, and 58 times more close to the long-term average. WGC said, and after a lot of assets to be seen, the price of gold is still near the long-run average.

Stable "investment flows"

Compared with other assets, the gold market shows a steady growth of the "investment flows." As in the 2008 financial crisis, macroeconomic and market uncertainty is amplified dramatically, while demand for gold has benefited from hedge funds in the market access and the transfer of security investments.

But the WGC report, today's gold price reflects not only the influx of these hedge funds, because from the time point of view, caused by the subprime mortgage financial crisis began in mid-June 2007, but the soaring price of gold from 2001 to 2002, has begun. And the course of the past 10 years, see, gold surge in investment demand and sagging of the different periods are up. For example, first quarter 2002 to first quarter of 2004, statistics of the inflow can be an investment in gold from 126 tons to 99 tons, a decline of 21% over the same period the price of gold has increased by 41%. In the second quarter of 2006 and 2008 between the second quarter, investment in gold from 146 tons to 152 tons, an increase of only 4%, can the price of gold has soared during the 67%. After the financial crisis in the global recovery process, growth of investment demand for gold as the old, and the flight to gradually reverse the flow, many investors moved their funds into the stock market again, and other risky assets, but has strong gold prices are still obvious.

Gold assets "Baixinho"

Stable investment accidental, and a variety of asset prices from the correlation analysis, the gold was hard to pin down any other asset prices. WGC data provided, including the U.S. Treasury, the Dow Jones industrial average and the Brent crude oil, including the volatility of various assets associated with the low gold price movements. Among them, the five-year cycle, the Dow Jones industrial average Brent crude oil and gold prices and weekly return correlation is only -0.05 and 0.34.

In the U.S. 10-year benchmark bond yields compared with the gold proceeds in two 30-day rolling correlation is not stable, and the most relevant nor more than 0.5. WGC report said changes in the price of gold is very likely not be the direct impact of fluctuations in bond yields. The reason why many investors are attracted to gold, gold and other assets precisely because of the low correlation, it can be gold as an effective diversification tool.

Developing countries will continue to support gold

In addition to these factors, emerging markets, driven by demand for gold will rise in the next decade booster gold. WGC, said gold demand in China has the potential to double in the next decade, in 2001, China gradually relaxed the control of gold, China's gold consumption is the level of other parts of the world catch up. Although China in 2009 became the world's second largest gold consumer, but China's per capita demand for gold is still lower than in Western economies. The agency also said that a gradual increase in income levels and living standards improve, and because of the high savings rate and the excess revenue will be supported in the next decade China's gold consumption, particularly in terms of gold jewelry consumption.

And the people's gold consumption in developing countries with improving the official buy gold. WGC report said the second quarter of 2009, many central banks become net buyers of gold party, and in the previous nearly 20 years, the role of central banks have been net sellers of gold. China, India, Russia and the Philippines and other countries, central banks buy gold in this round to play an important role. At the same time, European and other Western economies, the central bank gold sales have also been suspended.

However, gold and other countries in Asia accounted for the proportion of foreign exchange reserves are still low, this is the future central bank gold price surge in the share of gold will push the key. WGC data showed that all the world, about the central bank's foreign exchange reserves ratio is 10.7% gold, central bank reserves in Western developed economies, the golden ratio is about one-third less than in other regions the proportion of 5%, while Asian countries, gold foreign exchange reserves accounted for less than 5% of the half.

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