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The following article was published in our article directory on November 15, 2010.
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The World Economy Completely Out of the Financial Crisis Need More Efforts

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Although the worst of the financial crisis is over, but the world economy is still in post-crisis era. Make such judgments are based on the West Although most of the major developed economies achieve positive economic growth, but some important economic indicators are far from restored to pre-crisis levels. The most typical is the unemployment rate. U.S. unemployment rate below 5% before the crisis, but remained at a high of 9.6%; euro zone unemployment rate before the crisis is about 7.5%, but more than 10%, and there is still an upward trend; Japan's unemployment rate to a lesser extent, the current 5.1%, but also higher than pre-crisis level of 4%. In addition, the U.S., EU and Japan and other countries and regions as well as import and export of goods of domestic credit growth and other economic indicators also not yet recovered to pre-crisis levels. In short, the world economy in order to completely out of the shadow of the financial crisis, countries need to make greater efforts.

Make the U.S. economy stocks

The overall trend of the U.S. economy from the point of view, since last 3 quarters 3 quarters of this year is a very strong complement of U.S. manufacturing inventory stage. In this process, the U.S. manufacturing recovery evident. Meanwhile, since last 3 months, the U.S. stock market continued to rebound and government spending on cars and housing subsidy policy makes the United States private sector consumption and investment increased rapidly. With the recovery in manufacturing and consumption, investment, the rapid rebound in Q3 last year, the U.S. economy out of a wave of a strong rebound, employment data and real estate sales data also appeared in the momentum of improvement month by month.

However, entry 2 quarter, there are indications that the momentum of the U.S. economic recovery has begun to slow. This is mainly reflected in the following aspects: First, most of a series of fiscal stimulus has expired, which makes consumption growth slowed down; Secondly, the manufacturing sector's contribution to the restoration stock is weakening month by month, ISM manufacturing index has emerged ascribed down trend; Third, because of high unemployment, the U.S. consumer confidence index remained at the lower left area 50; Fourth, the U.S. government's "export doubling plan" progress is not smooth, not only has yet to resume exports to pre-crisis levels and the trend of trade deficit also increased month by month; Fifth, despite the three-quarter U.S. home sales rebound, but the long-awaited inventory of real estate activities does not make clear start, the U.S. economy appears to have entered a lack of clear growth phase. In short, no significant improvement in the consumer and real estate stocks do not make full swing, the export does not appear the situation has improved remarkably, the future will slow the U.S. economy rebound.

3 quarter of this year, the U.S. economy grew 3.1% qoq growth of 2.0% annualized, respectively, in Q2 increased by 0.1 and 0.3 percentage points. Although the 4th quarter from the previous quarter the U.S. economy may also be slightly higher, but the annual economic growth rate 3.2% lower than expected before the year is expected economic growth of 2.8% -2.9% range.

Currently, the United States as consumer confidence and investor confidence are at the low, weak growth of bank credit, bank loans to real sector growth rate of less than 1% year on year. Growth rate of broad money supply M2 Although bottoming out, but still 3% lower. Because the slow growth in nominal demand, the domestic consumer price index seen a continued decline in the trend, the current year increase in core CPI dropped to below 1%, the economy seems to have entered the United States the risk of deflation. It is in this context, the Fed recently restarted quantitative easing monetary policy to prepare for the next 9 months time, the holdings of 600 billion U.S. dollars long-term treasury bonds to stimulate the economy out of deflation in the shadows.

Of course, for America's future economic trends should not be overly pessimistic. The unemployment rate, though still high at 9.6%, but private sector jobs has been growing population and recent growth momentum is very strong; U.S. home sales rebounded in Q3, also will be a strong rebound in consumer credit, credit and monthly money supply data is also improved, so future U.S. economic growth to maintain a relatively stable trend likely.

European economy is still not optimistic

European economy to be pessimistic compared to the U.S. economy. Although the German economy thriving, but the other EU member states can not be optimistic about the economic trends. Since European countries have faced the pressure of fiscal austerity, therefore, three-quarter economic growth rate will generally decline. 3 UK reported the economy expanded at an annualized quarterly growth rate of 3.3%, compared to 4.6% in Q2, down 1.3 percentage points. Although the euro zone economy growth in Q3 data has not been announced, but it is expected there will be significantly decreased growth rate, it may be caused by decreased 4.1% in Q2 to 1.6% level.

Japan's economy continues downward

Japan's economy is more is not optimistic. As the yen continues to appreciate, the manufacturing PMI index has declined for 5 consecutive months, 10 months, in the global manufacturing purchasing managers index rising prevalence of cases, the domestic manufacturing PMI to 49.5 from last month still % to 47.2%, have been 2 consecutive months below 50% of the minimum economic boom. Currently, the Japanese economy has deep quagmire of deflation. Since the end of 2008, the CPI and core CPI year on year growth has been running in the negative range, the dollar during the Japanese yen and the euro exchange rate has appreciated by 20%. Japan's economic growth is expected in Q3 this year is likely to occur than in the first quarter of negative growth economic environment.

Moderate the pace of global recovery

Policies in emerging economies due to the reasons for withdrawal and the base year, there are high economic growth down trend, but there is still the main driving force of world economic growth. 3,4-quarter of this year is expected in emerging economies from the previous quarter data will rebound.

Overall, the major challenges currently facing the United States is in financial supervision to strengthen the process of deleveraging and how to restore domestic credit, an increase in domestic liquidity, recovery of consumption and investment, increase employment, and gradually reduce the trade deficit; European countries face major challenge is to tighten fiscal spending in the process and avoid investment, consumption and the decline in bank credit, and to prevent deflation; major challenge facing Japan is how to stop the yen's appreciation and increase exports; emerging economies face major challenges is how to deal with because international commodity prices caused by imported inflation pressures.

I judge the whole world economy is still in the gradual recovery of world economic process, but as Europe, America, Japan and the growth rate of the major developed economies slow down the pace of recovery will be leveling off. Expects the global economy in the next 1 to 2 years does not appear very strong growth, the greater may be the emergence of a moderate growth.

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