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The following article was published in our article directory on November 16, 2010.
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There is No Leverage for International Monetary Reform

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Summit Group of Twenty (G20) and APEC (APEC) has held in South Korea and Japan, not Asia highlighted the role of global economic governance has undergone significant changes in meaning. Furthermore, the emerging economic power on behalf of heavyweight "BRIC", and even the top position in the industrial division of labor in Germany together, for the time being can not shake the U.S. position. 'd Been high hopes for the G20 in promoting global financial stability, economic recovery and the marginal role in the trend is downward. May be a watershed summit in London, but even at that summit, G20's role is mainly instrumental.

Everyone knows, whether it is global economic imbalances and competitive currency devaluations or trade protectionism and the proliferation of global liquidity, the main driving force behind both the United States. Objectively speaking, since 1944, the United States in promoting world economic growth and global financial stability, the role of world matchless; no lack of creativity, the United States has the international economic and financial system filling a number of innovative elements. But as the year in Britain, to make the international economic and financial-led initiative of the States faded color is almost impossible selfish. In fact, the United States in recent years has been trying to maintain and extend the "dollar bonus" period. Originally, the idea of Europeans, according to today's patterns of international currency to rival the dollar and the euro should be, shared responsibility of the international monetary reserve currency. If from an economic perspective, economies of scale both in Europe and indeed in trade and other fields have already surpassed the United States, but the deficiencies of the euro has been shown to embarrass the big office. U.S. can control regular or irregular basis to combat the euro currency. The world should not forget that two years ago, when the U.S. Senate and House in the government's "carrot and stick" through the rescue plan, the White House of the traders were suspended a rescue operation but, Treasury bailout plan approved by the amount has yet to start, regulators and even in extreme panic in the market would dare to lift the ban on shorting, resulting in global stock and futures price volatility of the market with the United States was once a huge shock, the market outside the U.S. fear of economic recession or even collapse of the further amplification. Result, in recent years, the strong performance of the euro became the first looted objects, Oct. 23, 2008, euro against the U.S. dollar to close at 1.2931, the highest point of the year fell from 19%, which is extremely rare in the history of the euro. Two years later, the United States once again launched irresponsible monetary policy. On the one hand the introduction of the second round of the quantitative easing policy, irrigation hard to global currency markets; the other hand, letting the dollar "decisive" appreciation. The market debt crisis because of fears the haze come again in Europe, the euro against the dollar last week, the August record biggest weekly decline since. Poor euro, often in the international monetary system facing a major reshuffle pinch ball dropped. It is sad the euro area, but also highlights the Fed's policy sophistication.

Thus, while reform of the international monetary system as early as two years ago ushered in an excellent time window, but in the framework of various constraints, both economic reform and strong will of the strongest in Europe or emerging economies, they can not shake the U.S. in the international monetary system in the dominant position. Perhaps, as the British "Financial Times" in the G20 summit in Seoul, commented that almost all people who participate in the international financial system are that the long term reform is inevitable; China's rise will mean that the dollar can not maintain as the world's only reserve currency. However, in the next period of time, the dollar's role may not change.

I believe that the old and the new international economic and financial power of this long-Falling dollar system will allow a certain time in the future broken. But in this day really comes, the other economies do not expect the United States give up the status of reserve currency issuing countries.

Of course, the United States know that in the face of increasing pressure to change, stubbornly sticking to the same is not the answer, there is likely to continue to beat Europe to emerging economies, transferring part of the right to speak. In order to change the national spread of the accusations against the U.S. dollar, the U.S. may at some future time, the flow against the dollar, the result of inflation easing in the world, but again denied his country in disguise. The possible path arrangements: the continuing depreciation of the dollar makes the emerging economies is difficult to control high inflation, coupled with the financial crisis is not completely clear the virus, the asset bubble burst in emerging economies, more and more opportunities, it was forced to take a hard landing that demand greatly shrinking money out of commodity markets, the dollar strengthened homeopathy, capital back the United States, in the United States to strengthen the stability of financial institutions at the same time, a substantial decline in foreign exchange reserves in emerging economies, stock prices greatly diminished, the stock market crash. As the world's top oil and gold reserves of the United States, may choose to sell in the high oil and gold, return of U.S. dollars, to continue clearing the world economy. So the United States after the United States to absorb blood national resources, letting the world for the U.S. global strategic pattern of restructuring costs of all pay game.

It can be said, has lost the time window of reform of international monetary reform is entering "a claim no leverage," the awkward stage. Reform requires both the next time a major event in the window of fermentation, but also depends on par to the dollar leverage appears. The euro and the yen has been shown to embarrass any major reserve currency.

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