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The following article was published in our article directory on November 16, 2010.
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Ireland Crisis Test Europe Finance Safety Net

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

May launch of the EU 780 billion euros for emergency relief fund was once considered a possible repeat of anti-Fanou Dinghaishenzhen debt crisis. However, since the escalation began last month, the Irish crisis on the financial safety net for the validity of the so-called serious questions raised. The existence of such a safety net whether the extent to which inhibition of panic in the market? Ireland, Greece will be the next? Market speculation will become a nightmare prophecy? Should not have such a calm period, the risk of European debt crisis in the future once again become the focus of public attention.

May launch of the EU 780 billion euros for emergency relief fund was once considered a possible repeat of anti-Fanou Dinghaishenzhen debt crisis. However, since the escalation began last month, the Irish crisis of the financial safety net for this so-called serious questions raised effectiveness. The existence of such a safety net whether the extent to which inhibition of panic in the market? Ireland, Greece will be the next? Market speculation will become a nightmare prophecy? Should not have such a calm period, the risk of European debt crisis in the future once again become the focus of public attention.

Ireland and Greece have different circumstances similar to the recent problem is that the fledgling market for European financial safety net for the remaining number of concerns, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the recent part of the EU officials, including the delicate position changes have also increased the fund play a role in the rescue of uncertainty. Uncertainty is precisely the source of panic, it is worth noting that this fear may become a self-fulfilling prophecy-type, if poor management may lead to a vicious chain reaction.

As investors worried about the deterioration of the Irish government might have to because of financial applications to the European Union to ensure the rescue operation continued to rise for weeks on the Irish 10-year bond yields in the last week broke through to a high of 9%, raising even greater anxiety, also makes more and more European officials are concerned that Ireland is facing increasing upward pressure on funding costs may spread to other European countries with fragile economies. Minister for the euro area member states in just the past weekend has been on whether and how to provide financial aid to discuss the Irish, but so far no plans at this issue any formal meeting of eurozone finance ministers conference call. The Irish government reiterated on Sunday night in the country do not need to apply for rescue, saying a few weeks to announce a reliable fiscal austerity program, and thus reassure investors, reduce financing costs.

However, neither the investor nor the EU officials are clearly not love grace Geen so confident. Compared to Greece, Ireland, the problem may be more simple. The former financial data existed for many years hiding the truth from the real issue, which in the economic and financial management is much better reputation. However, this does not offset the negative economic growth in Ireland for three consecutive years and caused a huge fiscal deficit and debt burden concerns. The current deficit in the GDP of Ireland in the proportion as high as 32%, the EU's "stability and growth pact" provides more than ten times. The Government is redoubling its efforts to develop its budget next year is expected to be launched before the 7th of next month; a four-year while also stepping up development in austerity plan, which aims by 2014 to reduce the deficit-GDP ratio to 3%. Irish government hopes to convince its investors in order to restore fiscal sustainability.

However, it seems investors and European Union officials, in order to suppress the Irish rising cost of financing crazy right now, relying on its own deficit reduction and debt relief plan may not be enough, there must be an external reinforcement of its commitment to rescue. EU officials hope to action through the first step to curb the crisis may occur, especially to avoid a threat to countries outside of Ireland, and even threaten the entire European economic recovery. According to a report released by Barclays Capital, to solve the problem of Ireland's sovereign debt financing, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) may be required to provide 80 to 85 billion euros loan. However, from the perspective of investors, the likelihood of external commitments and the actual effect are still unknown.

As originally conceived, the EU has 780 billion euros in emergency aid funds, may not have a single soldier to serve the purpose of market confidence and stability, at least for several months in Ireland, cash flow can support the case should not arise in the market too much panic. However, the situation over the past half a month that the fund investors did not build a strong heart line of defense. Instead, the focus changes after EU summit "Lisbon Treaty" as investors worried about the debate, less than six months of the permanent fund could not help them to bear all the risk. Especially as the EU summit, German Chancellor Merkel, as well as just the end of the G20 summit have repeatedly made it is necessary for private investors bear part of the sovereign debt default loss. This variable so that the original concept of a financial safety net discount, investors are naturally high risk of euro zone countries to sell bonds to respond.

In addition, the attitude of the Irish food for thought. Safety net for the first start point of departure is difficult to apply the country, but until today the Irish government has a resolute attitude. In fact, the same situation in Greece when the crisis occurred, Greece is in the Emergency Rescue Fund was established only after a period of time for help made a real application. Chen believes that these heavily indebted countries are reluctant to seek help vulnerable for two reasons. The first recipient means to accept stain, but also to comply with a variety of harsh conditions, and even to some extent, the loss of some kind of political autonomy; second, recipient of the ruling party itself is a great negative, will serious threat to its domestic political stability. The ruling of the Irish Republican majority in Congress, only weak, such as the EU may be forced to seek help, its very early next year that a new round of elections.

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