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The following article was published in our article directory on November 18, 2010.
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Monetary Policy Need Carefully Consider the Impact On the Global Market

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

For China itself, the RMB is facing "external appreciation, internal devaluation" of the pressure. Mainly reflected in the exchange rate and interest rates in two ways. From the perspective of the exchange rate, quantitative easing by the Fed caused the weak dollar, directly pushed up the yuan against the U.S. dollar, and further strengthened the expectations of RMB appreciation. Depreciation of the dollar also boosted the dollar-denominated international commodity prices caused by imported inflation on the country, resulting in increased production costs, will eventually transfer to consumers, reducing the domestic real purchasing power and consumption capacity. For its part the United States, GDP from 70% of consumption, while industry and manufacturing in the United States share of the economic structure of low resources for basic raw materials price sensitivity is relatively low. While the industry accounting for more than 70% of China, the rising prices of raw materials produced by the negative impact is much higher than the United States. In this regard, the Chinese leader highlighted that the U.S. dollar as the international reserve currency, on a global scale, a considerable number of commodities, especially commodities trading, capital flows, financial market transactions are using the U.S. dollar, so will this policy on the global impact. If this policy is the correct choice of the United States, but globally is not an optimal choice, or have other side effects. From the perspective of the interest rate for domestic purposes, because the first three quarters, China's good momentum of economic recovery, GDP data is gratifying, the second economy into recession could almost zero, while the loose monetary policy led to high prices, high inflation The problem is particularly acute, recent CPI data again and again hit a new high, especially in September CPI data published by National Bureau of Statistics, reaching 3.6%, reaching its highest level in two years. The financial institutions are deposit interest rates remain the lowest in the financial crisis, the level of negative interest effect is obvious, and as such, a lot of hot money Yongru property market, pushing up asset prices, the domestic property market bubble has reached unprecedented levels, many consumers rigid demand This can only feel powerless and frustrated. The Chinese Government has introduced various types of macro-control policy to regulate the real estate market, such as restriction, abolition of tax concessions, interest rates go up and other policy tools. October 19 at the same time using the price of monetary tools, the increase in China's benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans of financial institutions, sending a strong signal to the market, speculators increase the cost of capital, to curb speculative demand malignant. Relatively low valuation of hot money turn to guide the capital markets. But from the perspective of global capital flows, interest rates in the tightening of domestic liquidity at the same time, will be subject to international arbitrage hedge influx of hot money. In particular through regular parent-subsidiary under the hot money into the cross-border trade. A significant phenomenon is the large number of international capital can be a very cheap way to enter the emerging economies, pushing up prices of various assets, causing the bubble, so for the control of capital is also emerging economies particularly need to focus and pay attention.

The U.S. Federal Reserve to stimulate the economy and solve the unemployment problem can be said to pull out all the stops, would give up its independence, and in the future to unforeseen risks of global hyperinflation once again to catch a helicopter to the global spread of money. This is the effect of boosting the domestic economy is still unknown, but the negative impact of the global is evident. Once the face of hyperinflation, then the Fed may have to repeat the mistakes Volcker. This is also the Kansas City Fed President Thomas Holly the main frame against the resolution, in his view, the acquisition of higher risk than the interests of more bonds. This continued at a high level of monetary accommodation of the increased risk of future financial imbalance will result in the long term rise in inflation expectations, which have shaken the economy. Pattern of economic integration in the world, any one influential countries in the formulation of monetary policy, need to carefully consider the impact on the global market, especially for the reserve currency country. National self-interest at the same time meet the need for a balanced consideration to the impact of other economies, especially in the current global economic slow recovery of the foundation is unstable, any behavior is not the overall situation may lead to the risk of global recession into a secondary .

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