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The following article was published in our article directory on November 19, 2010.
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Ireland Can not Bring Down the euro

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Ireland can not outlast the international foreign exchange markets the euro once again shown the world what "drastic changes." U.S. $ 600,000,000,000 early November launch of quantitative easing to U.S. dollars at the global concerns and India could lead to abuse of the long-term depreciation of the dollar, pushing up inflation in the world on the occasion, the Irish sovereign debt crisis set off worries about the rapid cooling to quantitative easing, the euro against the dollar 1.40 all the way down from the top of the exchange rate.

First half of 2010 to Greece as the representative of the European countries had debt problems of the euro against the dollar from 1.50 to 1.20 the following above the Bash. Ireland was ranked these countries on the list, This time is Jiuhuachongti. In my opinion, three reasons can be difficult to determine the crisis overwhelmed the Irish euro repeat.

First, the EU made it clear to support Ireland. The first half of this year, Greece's problems are worse for large-scale European sovereign debt crisis, the EU slow to blame. From the December 2009 issue of Greece began to emerge, to early May 2010 the introduction of 110 billion euros the EU assistance programs of Greece, the middle of almost half a year apart, which objectively facilitated the international speculative capital attacks against the euro. And the Irish problem, the EU responded quickly. Foreign media reports, the EU is considering the scale may be as high as 800-1000 million euro rescue package of Ireland, and another smaller Irish banking rescue plan.

Secondly, the Irish still ample liquidity. And Greece is different from the Irish until the middle of next year are sufficient funds, which means that the liquidity crisis will not soon come. This is very strange this point the Irish crisis, which brought a Euro short side is not speculation in the current debt problems of Ireland, but will be 8 months later, even before the end of 2011 may be potential problems.

Ireland Bond Authority data show that the total funds required in 2011 Ireland was about 23.5 billion euros in 2012 and 2013 were 20.7 billion euros may be required and 189 billion euros. It is obvious that if the Irish accept the EU aid would not have occurred in the debt within 1-2 years of non-compliance. Thus, to a large extent, the Irish problem is the short side deliberately exaggerated the euro.

Once again, the euro sell-off of assets is difficult to repeat itself. After the first half of the Greek crisis, Standard & Poor's, Moody's, Fitch in Europe have dropped significantly higher debt of the sovereign credit rating, is the way the Greek government bonds was reduced to junk status, which directly induce a worldwide tide of euro selling assets. Because the holdings of euro assets of sovereign investment funds, insurance funds, pension funds and large institutional investors such as commercial banks, the high rating of the most important asset is its investment targets, conservative investment strategy so they had been in European countries downgraded to sell the euro after the large-scale assets. This directly pushed up the euro zone bond yields, weighed on the euro exchange rate.

However, after the sell-off after the first half of 2010, the large investment funds held by the hands of high-risk Euro few remaining assets. June this year, the euro rebounded during the 10 months, most agencies are still evaluating the development of the European prospects for sovereign debt crisis, not holdings of euro assets quickly. Even if the Irish crisis continues to ferment, and even rating agencies continue to downgrade the Irish, there is no selling in large organizations to follow suit, it is difficult to induce the first half of this year that the euro market slump.

In fact, as early as May of this year, the EU introduced a package of 750 billion euros euro stabilization program, the already high debt countries to ensure that the euro zone does not occur within 2 years of non-compliance, which is June to October this year, the sharp rebound in the important euro reasons.

As early as six months ago, the Irish question had not a secret, which is typical of the wok same old stuff, the only difference is that the euro against the short side of the bull's-eye to public opinion into Ireland from Greece.

As the first half of the European sovereign debt crisis tremendous impact on investor psychology, is expected shortly, the euro is still down space, but the EU will have a follow-up measures to support the Irish, the euro is still strong support at 1.30 above, prices fall hard again.

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