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The following article was published in our article directory on December 6, 2010.
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Currency War Equivalent Political War

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

No more than money flooding destroyed a society, but very difficult to reform the international monetary system

Reform of the international monetary system is a Gordian problem. For the United States, it is merely synonymous with decline in U.S. international standing, so apathy; China first proposed the idea of reform, but the lack of specific proposals; emerging countries have similar ideas. Japan keen on this, but it is about the idea of regional monetary cooperation is inconsistent with China. Europe is no time to his care.

However, the original intention to reform the international monetary system should be affirmed. Lenin seems to have said, there is no better than the laissez-faire monetary flood to destroy a society. This fully applies to countries around the world. Currently, the international monetary system reform has four main problems.

The first is the exchange rate relationship. For decades, the exchange rate in developed countries come and go, but some emerging economies and developing countries, is indeed something new. Many countries, especially in Asia and the Gulf countries is actually pegged to the dollar exchange rate, pegged to the euro while the remaining countries.

But a fixed exchange rate often leads to currency undervalued, or overvalued. The coexistence of flexible and fixed exchange rate regime is also not easy, because the floating exchange rate movements tend to affect the currency. Therefore, the international monetary system needs to be reorganized. At present, the RMB exchange rate system is a touchstone. Much currency in other emerging market countries and developing countries concerned, and was the basis for formulating national policies. Not knowing that the current pattern of China's sustained, but still do not want positive change.

The second problem is got rid of their policies to curb the temptation of exporting inflation or unemployment. In the gold standard, the policy constraint is done automatically, but in the floating exchange rate regime is not the case. Over the years has become a unwritten rule that as long as the central bank that inflation would remain stable in the medium term, can do anything it wants to do. This usually guarantees a certain degree of policy coherence, avoid over-reaction of the exchange rate, but deflation becomes inadequate.

The Fed argued that the quantitative easing policy can stabilize prices, which Shangqie some truth. But Europe and some emerging countries that this move is no doubt at the expense of others. The question is, when domestic policy is appropriate, when no longer adopt a cooperative attitude, the lack of a standard, and therefore can not be assessed. Therefore, we need "supervision." This is the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to play the role, which is also the G20 to be done, but whether the United States or the emerging countries, which have little interest.

The third issue is the international liquidity. Ups and downs over financial flows, one day, emerging countries will be flooded into the capital, then they will face sudden capital outflows, it will also bring instability. In order to avoid local currency appreciation in excess of capital inflow or outflow of capital when the sharp decline in emerging countries have accumulated large foreign exchange reserves, of which two-thirds of U.S. dollar assets. Ten years ago, these reserves account for 6% of global GDP, now account for 15%.

Which in the end for self-protection, or in order to "peg" exchange rate, it does not matter: This inhibits the accumulation of unproductive foreign exchange needs, led to one of the root causes of the crisis. Sudden outflow of private capital in the circumstances, the real goal should be to ensure the availability of international credit lines, rather than self-preservation. International Monetary Fund has begun to do so, it creates a credit instrument, or another example as before with "strings attached." However, the International Monetary Fund suspicion still exists, and most countries, especially Asian countries, are still inclined to expensive self-insurance, rather than "mutual insurance."

The last one is the issue of collective set anchor. Naturally, the main concern about its own central bank can control inflation, such as endogenous inflation. However, if the global oil and raw material prices lead to inflation, how to solve the problem, no one concern. Over the past decade, non-inflationary environment, this is not, but now tensions in commodity prices, is becoming increasingly prominent. Set anchor for the global monetary policy and to ensure that the development of global supply, this is a real problem.

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