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The following article was published in our article directory on December 6, 2010.
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China Economic Growth is Expected Must Reduced

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

As the world economy has high growth, high-growth non-normal, long years, will return to normal growth, growth in external demand so we will return to normal levels. For China, a need to participate in the international circle of economic development powers, this is undoubtedly an extremely important constraint. Thus, the domestic consumer demand has become critical.

Increase investment in education, improving education level of social reform and health care, unemployment, old age security system, increased government transfer payments, of course, will increase the propensity to consume. However, due to China's huge population, the propensity to achieve a significant increase in the extent can not bear. Short-term, the government can, such as home appliances, agricultural machinery to the countryside and other policies to stimulate consumption, but the role of these policies and measures in the end limited and can not be sustained. Forward, the Government no longer like the real estate market, the huge auto market as demand for development and utilization of the stock. Short-term, the government can increase the investment to increase domestic demand, but long-term, investment will become a new supply, and can form a new growth area of investment is not much point. Infrastructure investment as the use of large machinery and equipment, for increasing employment and promoting the middle and lower classes the role of income growth would not significantly. To increase consumption, the core is still to increase revenue, especially the middle and lower income people.

First of all, this is a system of constraints in transition countries, rather than the general tendency of market economies, the problem of inadequate consumption. Government of national income share of high land and other important factors of production by the state, and the upstream monopoly, and so severely restricted the growth of personal and family income. These are not requirements management can solve the problem, but the system can be resolved through reforms. However, the reforms in these areas more difficult.

Second, it is a populous developing country's development. The middle and lower income people to improve, and ultimately to rely on industry to achieve. But today's economy is the durable goods economy, characterized by the production capacity of more than spending power, which requires external demand absorb our labor-intensive manufactured goods. Now faced with reduced external demand, which constitutes a contradiction. Better believe that there is a huge stock of demand in rural areas can be developed. However, the actual is not. Tracing the source, not only the incomes of farmers will depend on the manufacturing industry, is their income is derived from both the manufacturing sector. Logically, we must rely on industrial development to allow the farmers to get rich, rather than through the consumption of farmers to absorb the huge industrial capacity.

Return of external demand, so the need to increase domestic consumption, and increase domestic consumption, the final analysis, people need to increase income, which can not do without foreign demand for us to absorb the labor-intensive manufactured goods, the economy is in such a "vicious circle" in the road. To this end, maintaining exchange rate stability is an important goal of China's economy.

As the world economy has high growth, high-growth non-normal, long-term will return to normal, and this adaptation, we also benefit from the growth of external demand is a return to normal state, then the growth of the Chinese economy is expected to be reduced. Whether from the demand side, or from the supply side, has more than 8% of the high-growth economic environment has changed. China's future economy will bid farewell to more than 8% of the high-growth era, is likely to return to a speed of around 7% growth in the era.

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