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The following article was published in our article directory on December 14, 2010.
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European Policy Makers Must Begin to Choose

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

It now appears that the crisis in Greece and Ireland is the euro-zone crisis. To resolve this crisis is not quite so easy.

Economic theory is very simple. Greece has a financial problem, the Irish have a bank issue, a private debt of Portugal, Spain is a combination of these three issues. However, despite the problems the details of the different countries, but the final results are similar, that is, these countries must now endure a very painful spending cuts.

To buffer the effect of tightening the standard path is combined with the depreciation of the domestic currency. Currency devaluation makes exports more competitive, so, even though domestic demand is compressed, but the substitution of foreign demand will play a role in domestic demand. However, because there is no devaluation of the national currency, so they must be replaced within the depreciation of the external depreciation. They had to cut wages, pensions and other costs to be gains in terms of competitiveness, which in turn need to replace the foreign demand for domestic demand.

This simple fact form a fundamental contradiction, for the depreciation of the domestic strategy: countries to cut wages and costs more, they become the next Renji Cheng higher debt load. And, when the debt burden becomes larger, more public support must be cut, and that increasing tax revenues and government spending to deal with problem banks. Continuously, forming a vicious circle.

Therefore, if the internal depreciation of useful value of the debt must be written low. Government debt must be restructured. Bank debt had to be converted into equity, the bank off bankruptcy. The value of mortgage debt must be written low.

Policy makers do not want to go this route, is understandable. Contraction is inevitable. For financial markets, governments are worried about their credibility will be lost, and own responsibilities and obligations of the financial markets are dominated by foreign nationals or foreign banks. These practices undermine the government is stable.

However, to date, the Government must in the internal and external depreciation to make a choice between devaluation. They unanimously declared that the external depreciation is not possible. However, the internal asked the Government to devalue the debt restructuring, denied that it can not solve the problem.

On debt restructuring, the Government may consider providing the new bonds, the value of the value part of the value of existing bonds. Bond holders can give two options, either choose to hold the same nominal value of the new bonds, but the holding time to be longer and lower interest rates or a discount to existing bonds, but can have a shorter holding time interest rates can be higher. These practices did have, and now, European leaders must think deeply and make a decision.

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