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The following article was published in our article directory on December 20, 2010.
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2011 World Main Currency Exchange Rate Trend Tends to Divide

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

In 2011, the overall recovery process as the world economy slowing, the uncertainty of recovery factors in the process will be further increased, the main currency exchange rates will also be more complicated.

1. Weak economic growth, the dollar will remain at low shock

United States once again the practice of printing money causes resentment around the world, or even held in November became the target of public criticism on the G20 summit. In order not to cause global currency war, the U.S. dollar short-term to continue down the space has not. Currently, the dollar index has been low for the year early in November, rose to 30 November of 81.20.

However, the long term, the dollar will remain weak shock situation.

First, the U.S. economy will slow growth for long periods. Subject to the innovation cycle and the large-scale industrial application of new technologies of the time limit, the U.S. has a comparative advantage in high-tech industry is difficult for the short term the United States and the world economy played a role in promoting a new round of growth. In the traditional manufacturing sector, compared with other countries, the United States no longer have a comparative advantage.

Secondly, to stimulate the economy, the Fed will maintain a loose monetary policy long. Since December 2008, the Federal Reserve has been the target federal funds rate will remain at 0-0.25% range of the same, and has repeatedly reiterated that it would keep interest rates over an extended period of "abnormal low."

Again, the U.S. trade deficit and the fiscal deficit remains high. According to exchange rate theory, the trade deficit country's currency devaluation inherent power. The high level of government debt that would force the U.S. government budget deficit to monetary measures. As the U.S. dollar in the international monetary system, the special status of the implementation of fiscal monetary policy of the United States can be passed on to foreign countries through the depreciation of the dollar to stimulate the economy and reduce the cost of external debt and debt financing for the government.

2. Europe around the euro debt problems continue

According to statistics, the euro zone countries in the next three years, government debt totaled about 600 billion euros, the EU common joint IMF provided 750 billion euros of the rescue plan can solve the short-term liquidity problems. This is the next step forward for European countries to reduce the deficit and the fiscal austerity program to gain time.

If the euro-zone deficit reduction and fiscal austerity to plan, will not only improve the financial situation of all countries to strengthen the euro area fiscal policy coordination; and budgets of these countries will make the structure more reasonable. Expenditure will be more by the social security and social welfare programs to education, research and development and other aspects of sustainable development, which helps to enhance the competitiveness of euro-zone economy to achieve sustainable economic growth.

At the same time, due to strict monetary policy in the euro area to a single policy objective of price stability, tolerance and strict control of inflation at 2%, not the introduction of a more accommodative monetary policy. In addition, monetary policy is similar to the euro's exchange rate policy can hardly be part of a national policy instrument to stimulate exports. Based on the above factors, the euro is expected to gradually picked up.

However, the following factors may also have downward pressure on the formation of the euro. First, note the recent outbreak of the Irish crisis, due to historical reasons, the formation of long-term government debt and the total elimination of short period of time may be difficult to repeat. Concerns about the market mechanism for the euro will be a long time. Second, development is uneven in the euro zone economies, Germany, France and other countries economic recovery is better, and if Spain still faces high unemployment and declining real estate issues. To this end, the European Central Bank had to maintain a low interest rate monetary policy to support national economic recovery. Again, the implementation of national austerity program to reduce government spending, the European economic growth may slow further due to lack of demand.

3. Yen increased downside risks to the future

Currently, the yen exchange rate has been at a record high since 1995, government intervention, increased public debt, long-term zero interest rate monetary policy makes the yen have increased the downside risks to the future. If the yen continued to keep rising, the Japanese central bank is likely to take a new round of interventions. And to stimulate the economy, Japan will continue to maintain fiscal stimulus plan and easy monetary policy. This area will increase the size of public deficits, the Government of Japan; the other hand, the financing will strengthen the yen, the currency attribute. In addition, weak economic growth in Japan, the fundamentals do not support a strong yen, which increased the downside risks to the future of the yen.

4. Resource-based national currency with the rise in international commodity price shocks

For the resource-based currencies of countries to determine the future trend, on the one hand depends on the future of international commodity prices change, on the other hand will depend on their economic and macro-policy trends.

For some time, increased demand in emerging economies, the global excess liquidity and inflationary expectations, long-term weakening U.S. dollar and other factors conducive to international commodity prices higher. U.S. jobless economic recovery and the continuing debt crisis in Europe will increase the prospects for global economic recovery, the uncertainty of the future international commodity price shocks may show an upward trend.

Meanwhile, the uneven recovery in the global economy and ample liquidity situation, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and other countries will face international capital flows, inflation pressures rise and other issues. To control inflation, which central banks raise interest rates further in the future may be. The spread of the increase will boost the currency of these countries, and the price of the asset demand. Therefore, future resource-based countries, currency exchange rates will remain strong position, and may be further reaching record highs.

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