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The following article was published in our article directory on December 24, 2010.
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Global Economy Continue to Track the Recovery

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: xia zihui

In the "Global Economic Prospects 2010" report, the majority of our forecast area will be a strong recovery in emerging markets, while the moderate recovery in the developed world. Financial crisis will allow the recovery of the developed countries long shrouded in shadow, but the emerging markets may be driven by domestic demand, strong economic growth. Development of basic facts in line with expectations, on the 2011 global economic forecast, we still maintain this direction and made three important prerequisite.

First, in 2008 and 2009 experienced a crisis and economic recession, we expect early as mid-2009, will be able to continue the economic expansion, global economic growth in 2011 4.3% (2010 4.8% growth rate may be): Barring major shocks or policy mistakes, or the global economy as well as any major economy can not relapse into recession.

Second, we expect global economic recovery will keep track running, the growth rate of emerging economies (likely to grow 7.4% in 2010, up 6.6% in 2011) was much more than developed countries (2.6% growth in 2010, 2.2% in 2011): emerging economies (especially the emerging Asian economies) generally good basic domestic situations, and developed economies (especially the U.S. and Europe) growth continued to face headwinds caused by the aftermath of the financial crisis. Global economic growth in 2011, nearly three-quarters will come from emerging economies (in purchasing power parity terms), of which almost half the contribution from China and India. According to our forecasts, China's 2011 global economic growth is three times the United States, while India's contribution to the equivalent of Western Europe and Japan combined.

Third, the crisis of global economic rebalancing to face many twists and turns: the global economic imbalances and tensions may still be the market volatility and downside risks to economic prospects of the main reasons. Many emerging economies of the output gap (the beginning part of the economy is very small) have been or are being closed (earlier than the developed economies), and the rapid development of emerging markets may continue to attract global capital inflows, which makes policy management more complex and improves the economy overheating and the risk of policy mistakes.

Path dependence theory in economics and reasonableness of the economy will affect the path of development prior to its possible future direction of development: history is very important. It is always right, and when the economy suffered significant shocks in particular. The occurrence of the 2008 financial crisis, extenuating circumstances (for a long time to a variety of surplus and growing imbalances), and the aftermath of the crisis and to resolve remaining issues will continue to drag on the economy and affect development after 2011. The crisis and its corresponding policy responses will have their own problems and unexpected results.

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