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The following article was published in our article directory on December 27, 2010.
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China Overtook the United States is Very Far Away

Article Category: Business Management

Author Name: Amanda xzh

2010 China could become the world's largest economy, it is predicted that this theory of purchasing power parity basis, taking into account the fact that China's relatively low price level to adjust the results. However, how to determine the question of purchasing power parity, economists have different views. That is, only when China's GDP into dollars at market exchange rates calculation, if the number is still more than the U.S. GDP, then the United States will really be convinced.

If calculated in accordance with the above, China's GDP just two-fifths of the United States, surpassing the United States from that day is still very far away, but China is getting closer to the United States.

Surpassing the United States is only a matter of time

In 2003, when Goldman Sachs BRIC first time to predict, it is expected that China may overtake the United States in 2041. And now this time it will be advanced to 2027.

November of this year, Standard Chartered Bank made a forecast that China could overtake the United States in 2020. To some extent, this also reflected the impact of financial crisis for the United States. Third quarter of 2010, the United States to achieve real GDP is lower than the level in December 2007, while China's GDP growth over the same period by 28%.

When other factors do not change the circumstances, if China and U.S. real gross domestic product every year to the average annual growth rate over the past decade growth, then China's GDP will surpass the U.S. in 2022.

However, according to figures made in the past often can not infer that roughly reflect the actual situation in the future.

Take the mid-eighties of last century the forecast, for example, that time almost all the forecasts show that Japan will become the world's largest economy, in addition, the decrease in the number of Chinese workers due to decreased productivity will allow China to economic slowdown.

In addition to China and the U.S. dollar-denominated GDP, depends not only on the actual growth rate, but also depends on the rate of inflation and the exchange rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar.

Rapid growth in productivity in emerging economies, real interest rates over time and continue to rise, this is due to the impact of inflation on the other hand is due to the rise in nominal interest rates.

In the past decades, China and the U.S. annual inflation rate was 3.8% and 2.2%. In addition, since 2005, China abandoned the peg to the dollar's exchange rate policy, making the RMB exchange rate, the average annual appreciation rate of 4.2%.

Maybe a lot of people do not agree with our point of view, or that China's GDP will slow to 5% per year, and then the other factors remain unchanged, the Chinese economy can only hope to surpass the U.S. in 2022 .

It is undeniable, even to that time, the United States will remain very rich, while the U.S. gross national product per capita is still more than four times. But the Chinese figures are not depressed because of this, on the contrary, no matter when that day comes, some Chinese people will rejoice.

United States and China should seek cooperation in many ways

In fact, with growing national strength of China, destined to its worldwide will be more there as well. Some countries may rise some concern for China, but does not need China as an enemy. After all, China and the Soviet Union, the Chinese did not force their own ideology in addition to other countries.

Also, unlike the nineteenth-century China and the European powers to create a new colony. Moreover, exists between the two countries a wide range of benefits, such as globalization, the mutual opening of markets, each purchase of raw materials and export products. In addition, both countries are committed to creating a more stable world environment.

In view of the future of China and the United States in which the external environment and competition, the United States and China should seek cooperation in many areas. Asia needs a single regional security mechanisms - rather than compete nowadays quite a mixed bag of scenes - such as the East Asia Summit, to promote trade through the organization.

Asian countries should also be in non-traditional security, such as health, environmental protection, anti-piracy and anti-terrorism and other fields to work together. This itself is a cross-border threats.

Of course, if the United States respected the freedom of it trying to restrain China's development system, then the United States should own constraints. For a long time, has been the United States to break the routine, for example, question the cause of Chinese trade protectionism is a good example.

China and the United States can be said to the giant in history, also have certain advantages. The twentieth century they have witnessed the common mistakes, then in the twenty-first century, their performance should be different.

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