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The following article was published in our article directory on December 27, 2010.
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Global Liquidity Excess Recent Will Not Change

Article Category: Business

Author Name: Amanda xzh

Starting next year, the global economy and financial markets will officially enter the "post-crisis era", systematic and large-scale collapse of the financial market risks largely over. Major Western economies in the coming year may be relatively strong recovery in financial markets may be substantial fluctuations.

Inflation and asset price inflation is the main theme

Despite the existence of the debt crisis in some European countries, but the mainstream of the developed countries is the United States, Japan, Canada, Germany, France and Australia and other countries, economic growth in these countries there are already good signs, which the United States the most obvious. The implementation of the United States next year will remain expansionary fiscal policy, many economists predict U.S. economic growth next year will be more than 3%. Japan's economy benefited from the growth of emerging markets next year are likely to remain the last two quarters of positive growth. Germany's economy will also benefit from economic growth in emerging market countries, also benefited from the debt crisis in Europe the euro.

Financial markets next year, Europe is still the main topic of the debt crisis. It should be said, the overall financial situation in Europe is much better than the United States, but the internal coordination mechanisms is a problem, and now being gradually solved. The coming year, the European Central Bank might follow the Fed's old, that some form of quantitative easing policy to implement in the short term to stabilize the financial markets, but the euro is also a good thing for Europe. In the process, the euro against the U.S. dollar is expected to appear relatively large fluctuations in the first half of next year, the euro fell against the dollar may continue to the end of the year to basically solve the debt crisis in Europe will pick up again later.

Overall, from an international point of view, economic growth in 2011 will not be a problem, while structural adjustment will also appear. International financial market volatility will, in short, is global excess liquidity will continue. In the next three to five years, the global excess liquidity will not change the situation of excess liquidity for the West, is very beneficial because in the current circumstances, the Western countries to restore the economic, financial markets have pushed up prices. The main performance is the financial crisis, falling asset prices, asset prices are pushed up to, even if there is little inflation, is also acceptable. Therefore, the next two or three years, global inflation and asset price inflation will be the main theme, Western countries and other peripheral countries, the situation can not be deflation.

China's capital market is very healthy

China's economy next year will still have relatively strong growth. China's economic growth this year in the 10.3-10.5%, and next year's forecast is 9.5-10%, and the next two years are very high growth rate, the basic reasons behind it, and now China is still in high growth period within. Many basic construction projects still in progress, including high-speed rail investment, to cope with various natural disasters, the basic construction investment, investment in energy saving equipment, etc. These will ensure next year's investment in fixed assets maintained at relatively high levels .

Measured from an academic point of view, China's capital market is now very healthy, reasonably priced market now, there is no bubble. China's price-earnings ratio and dividend capital market rate data better than the capital markets in many developed countries, while better-than-historical level of the Chinese market. The real estate market, next year the Government will continue to take various measures to increase transaction costs and holding costs, the real estate market as an investment, this may have been gradually losing its appeal, especially compared with the capital markets.

Finally, for public investment to make a few suggestions: First, we must realize that investing is a marathon, is a way of life, should pay attention to long-term trends, long-term investment and should not be overly concerned about the short-term fluctuations; the second is in the process of investment To keep the bottom line, some of the money set aside against risk, such as insurance and bank deposits, third is to keep the bottom line on the basis of active investment, especially in the moderate inflation period; Fourth, look to put China In addition, investors concerned about China's economic growth to benefit from investment opportunities in the country.

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