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The following article was published in our article directory on January 12, 2011.
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RMB will appreciation of 5%

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

In the yuan against the us dollar approximation highs predicting this

Analysts predict this year the yuan appreciation by about 5%

Under the influence of $index fell overnight, 11 in the yuan against the us dollar a day before the middle price rise 133 basis points, set a since last November 11, the largest one-day increase, while the middle price also 6.6216 from historic highs only one step away. Reporter recent interview's analysts, in view of international environment, and alleviate the purpose of inflation, the yuan this year will still continue to rise the situation, appreciation about 5% or so.

The middle price to go tall impetus to the spot market RMB rising dramatically. 11 open quotation beginning, RMB immediately walk is high, and active, finally to plate delivers 6.6200, closing at $relatively before the session of rising 177 basis points. Chinese President hu jintao's upcoming on January 18 to 21 the state visit to the United States, the market has been that the recent RMB will play a supporting role.

The market of expected future appreciation also began heavier. By reporters circulation, overseas without principal usance (NDF) settlement on the market, one-year RMB against the us dollar quote 6.4380 yuan, or market expectations a year later the yuan's rise against the dollar a day earlier 2.7%, expected future appreciation obvious grumous. And domestic forward markets, to $one-year renminbi swaps discount 465 points, the market think a year later in the yuan against the us dollar will reach 6.5735 yuan.

And the reporter interviewed before the part analysts expected for RMB appreciation is a market expectations more strongly. Morgan Stanley in the greater China region, chief economist WangQing thinks, expected this year to the end of the year, the dollar would rise 6.2 or so, risen about 6.5 percent. Main reasons are two: one is the 2010 RMB appreciation many considering international pressures, and far to 2011 international pressure can rise only, won't drop; 2 it is input type inflationary pressure rises, also to revalue the renminbi. Last June the central bank announced restart yuan reform, more than half a year since the yuan against the dollar has risen around 3.3 per cent.

Deutsche bank in the greater China region, chief economist Mr Ma is expected to tighten monetary policy, as part of the renminbi appreciation, this year is about 4% - about 5 percent. He also thinks that RMB internationalization conditions matures, first is the amount of China's GDP in 12 years, will overtake the U.S. Secondly, six years after China's trade volume also will overtake America; Moreover, capital project is gradually opening, future will be the main focus on RMB of FDI, ODI, small QFII, etc. Hong Kong's RMB deposit increases rapidly promote the market level of RMB internationalization. He is expected to Hong Kong's RMB deposit will be in 3 years up to 8 times, up to 200 trillion yuan.

Yi gang, vice governor of the central bank in the China foreign exchange "recently wrote on, said to cope with American second round quantification looser monetary policy, this year to further enhance the RMB exchange rate flexibility.

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