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The following article was published in our article directory on January 14, 2011.
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RMB appreciating too rapidly and inflationary pressures

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

In June of last year, the central bank announced to further promote the RMB exchange rate system reform, strengthen the RMB exchange rate flexibility, is now called restart yuan reform. Against the dollar, after began to appreciate, and at the end of the spurt to 6.5897 yuan, annual cumulative appreciation 3.6%.

Enter 2011 years later, short 10 days time, rapid appreciation in the yuan against the us dollar, January 5 has realized the ten even Yang, jan 12 yuan against the us dollar in the middle price quote again, 6.6128 set yuan reform since jan. 13 record highs, 6.5997, refresh and quote us of the previous day's high.

Under the current circumstances, force quite revalue the renminbi revaluation personage thinks, to make the country's economy structure transformation, be helpful for industrial upgrading, to overcome the excessive rely on low-end export industry promoting economic development situation. These may have something, if the renminbi appreciation, measurable, slow in China export enterprises can bear situations, and to Chinese export enterprise reserve a transformation time space appreciation, is acceptable. However, if the renminbi like this such "to force" a big revaluation, then, will allow countless export enterprise uptill transformation in the transformation and upgrading of die, what about successful transition? Prime minister wen jiabao last year to visit Europe answer westerners inquiries about RMB exchange rate, the RMB exchange rate only controllable land, rhythmic slow appreciation, China's export enterprise profit space just three or four percent, appreciate much these enterprises will be difficult to live. And last for six months in the yuan against the us dollar value will increase 3.6 per cent, enough to show that China's export enterprise survival business hard.

China are in pursuit of export and consumption and investment balanced development, China's economy from excessive rely on exports turned to expense primarily needs a process and time. And at present consumption starting needs to improve the residents' income, to social security system consummation, could not come easily. In the transition period, if the renminbi revaluation too fast to export a struck down, whereas consumer and not start up, then, for China's economy is a fatal blow. But at present, invest heavily exposed more and more problems, it is not possible to repeat, meanwhile, real estate regulation, environmental pressure, energy conservation and emission reduction, urban governance of auto influence on blocking are mostly appeared, export the carriage if thoroughly slowdown or to a halt, then, China's economy may stall.

Another argument is that the yuan rise more quickly help reduce domestic inflation. This kind of understanding is wrong and confused, home. Yuan appreciation will really make some goods turned to domestic sales, increase domestic supply, seems to be for the price has certain inhibition. But, careful analysis, actually otherwise. Domestic prices and inflation largely vegetables, food and consumer goods prices driven. Therefore, appreciation on domestic inflation not necessarily up obvious function.

At present Chinese inflation total root lies in monetary perennial super hair accumulation of excess liquidity reasons. Liquidity is overflowing, monetary flood total curse. In order to curb inflation, monetary policy is taking big strength debt-collection market liquidity countermeasures. The yuan, appreciate much has attracted international hot money wantonly in mainland China market liquidity soared to offset the monetary policy debt-collection liquidity role. Meanwhile, hot money into the housing, stock markets, causing a capital asset overheating market and produce a foam risk, enter the agricultural product market to hype push high prices, thrusting inflation. Say so, yuan appreciating too rapidly and will not ease inflation could push the high Chinese inflation.

RMB foreign revaluation inside depreciation has been there for facts. Since last June yuan reform began to rise sharply since the yuan, also is almost the same period in China domestic inflation grew sharply, CPI began, the fact proved RMB appreciation to ease inflation does not play a significant role.

Therefore, in order to China's economic transformation smoothly, to the healthy development of China's economy, the yuan can never so rapid appreciation down, must resolutely control RMB exchange rate, in China's economic this difficulty and critical period in a good grasp of the yuan appreciation rhythm.

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