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The following article was published in our article directory on April 21, 2011.
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The regulation of real estate is strictly

Article Category: Business

Author Name: xia zihui

Layer of real estate industry regulatory credit risk management lotto again.

April 19, CBRC second economy held 2011 financial situation TongBaoHui, chairman of China's real estate development request mingkang reinforced loan risk management, conduct a new round of real estate loans pressure test.

Reporters from commercial bank, people familiar with the sole learned in early April, the banking regulatory commission has issued a notice, and required the bank calculates according to the new situation assumptions mortgage quality changes, the end of this month to early may test case reported in the eight real estate situation of the 5 loan classification balance.

And last year proposed twice the CBRC mortgage stress testing situation assumptions, this round of testing consider compared the hypothetical question more detailed and strict. The above personage says, the general areas to high-risk areas and calculate, the former classify the light, medium, heavy three pressure situation, respectively, for standard improve average house prices fell 30%, interest rates by 27 basis points, house prices fell 40% and interest rates 54 basis points, house prices 50%, interest rates 108 basis points. In addition, this will also increase the
transaction area reduction hypothesis of housing situation.

"Compared with that of last year, house prices, since many this year raised interest rates several times, and to develop new pressure test is necessary." Several commercial bankers said.

However, bankers think the extreme hypothesis, appear test conditional probability is very low, real estate non-performing loans and defective rate should not appear to rise sharply.

Seven cities. High pressure test
Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, chongqing, hangzhou, nanjing seven cities for mortgage "high risk areas", should be made according to the condition of dramatic drop prices measure.

Fyi, the mortgage stress test according to the regions of the different was given a different treatment, Beijing, Shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, chongqing, hangzhou, nanjing and other seven big cities was confirmed as mortgage high-risk areas, according to house prices fell to calculate the condition of dramatic changes in 5 loan classification of real estate.

China real estate index academy data shows, in July 2010, Shanghai, shenzhen, guangzhou, chongqing, hangzhou, nanjing commodity housing the price 23883 yuan/flat respectively, 23465 yuan/flat, 13926 yuan/flat, 6325 yuan/flat, 19950 yuan/flat, smooth, and when 11892 yuan/march this year, the six cities respectively commercial housing clinch a deal valence 13806 yuan/flat, 19424 yuan/flat, 11287 yuan/flat, 6933 yuan/flat, 18352 yuan/flat, 13069 yuan/flat, most cities falling house prices (Beijing data loss).

"These urban housing price is too big, if policy continued deflation, appear dropped sharply is possible, the bank is necessary to understand the possible tolerance in advance." Shenzhen a real estate intermediary researchers say.

Outside the big cities for seven other regions, according to the CBRC urged falling house prices 10%, interest rates by 27 basis points, house prices fell 20%, interest rates 54 basis points, house prices fell 30%, interest rates by measuring the situation of the 108 basis points.

The two mortgage test than last year, the new round of testing more areas targeted, in house prices fell by also given or heavy or light situations.

In May 2010, the CBRC urged bank according to falling house prices 10%, interest rates by 27 basis points, house prices fell 20%, interest rates 54 basis points, house prices fell 30%, interest rates 108 years basis points on three kinds of circumstances, then mortgage stress tests on August, regulators to redefine the severe pressure situations, falling house prices range from drops 30% adjustment to 50%.

In addition, the foregoing informed sources, and this year's test increased "deal area reduction" this situation, light, medium, heavy corresponding press down 10%, 20%, 30% to calculate.

Bankers analytic says, the regulatory layer newly established situation should be the main consideration to real estate mortgage stress testing actual situation, bank loans to developers not only mortgages, including a significant proportion of credit
Loans, it will examine developers payments cash flow, namely sales revenue, which estimates involves not only changes, and prices change. Clinch a deal area
Insiders say, according to regulatory requirements calculated result comes out, Banks need to classify the pressure testing situation report eight estate class 5 loan classification changes, respectively is real estate development loans and real estate development loans, land reserve loans, commercial housing loans, personal housing loan, enterprise purchase loans, upstream and downstream related industries including loan (upstream steel, cement, glass industry, including furniture manufacturing, small home appliance downstream etc) and other loans.

Among various testing model is effective
"Assumptions, some may still too many conflicts of." A personage merit. For example, when falling house prices 50%, clinch a deal the assumption doesn't fall 30% of founded.

Develop and supervise supervisor for commercial bank mortgage stress test self-consciously, effective geometry, have been chaotic unanswered.

"State line, line and small bank shares the pressure test model is not the same." A mortgage stress test in regulatory layer, said bankers and issued only require Banks to test standard format will mortgage into mortgage-related and the mortgage-related calculate, other respectively are the Banks themselves give situational hypothesis.

According to its understanding, in the development of credit side, most the bank on house prices, interest rates, regional, clinch a deal the area, such as construction area of five main index calculation developers reimbursement cash flow; In individual housing mortgages loan, according to house prices, interest rates, regional, loans and value ratio (loans) divided by property valuations 4 main index calculation client default rate since housing loan, divided into housing loan, investment, real estate for a mortgage business loans, house property consumer loan 4 class to calculate respectively. Banks test assumptions period normally is 1 year.

However, the four major state-owned trip test model is more complex, also contain indicators of GDP growth, real estate industry changes, medium of estate company shares guild consider operation conditions change, inventory turnover index, enterprise rating change, the market share of small Banks may not measuring collection losses, customer expectations developers develop cost change, cash flow reshuffled lead to real estate non-performing loans.

"To be honest, I think the significance of mortgage stress test is not big, assumptions, some may still too many conflicts of." This name personage merit. For example, in house prices 50% of the severe situation assumptions, clinch a deal area and established the hypothesis fell 30 percent, house price declines have not big, the volume resilience of the possibility is very large.

In addition, many of the bank to reporters, who GeDai mortgage stress tests are static, assuming that most of the index is changeless, just calculate house prices, interest rates, clinch a deal the area under extreme change credit quality changes, and in fact this is not possible, real estate and relevant upstream and downstream industry credit affect measurements, lack of historical data is difficult to estimate, rely on personal experiences are not accurate.

According to the bank open ever after mortgage stress test results that most Banks are says the overall risk of controllable. Such as handing in travel in the first round last may, according to the results of the stress test falling house prices 30%, development 1.2%, personal loans defective rate increase 0.9 percent defective rate increase the mortgage. Last August in the second round of test falling house prices 50% of extreme cases, its development loans defective rate up by about 1.6 percent, personal housing loan defective rate up by about 1.2 percentage points, the rate is not big.

"The biggest factors affecting bank mortgage loans or credit policy adjustment, and not the real estate market change." The foregoing is engaged in mortgage stress test bankers said. At present, many Banks slow hair or suspended, it will directly affect real estate loans to bank mortgage balances, earnings etc.

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